Josh Dobbs Changes Vikings’ Math on Kirk Cousins Decision

Perhaps no player’s future with his current team has been subject to more speculation and debate than that of quarterback Kirk Cousins of the Minnesota Vikings.

The arrival of Josh Dobbs is the latest twist in the discussion, as he has led the team to two wins in Cousins’ absence and captured the attention of the Vikings’ fan base. Dobbs is 28 years old and playing on a $2 million deal, while Cousins is 35, rehabilitating from an Achilles tear and will earn $35 million this season.

Before his injury, Cousins was playing arguably the best football of his career during his second season in head coach Kevin O’Connell’s system. Dobbs showed up and ran that system well enough to earn a comeback road win against the Atlanta Falcons two Sundays past, despite possessing a less-than-rudimentary grasp of the offense.

Judd Zulgad of USA Today’s Vikings Wire on Sunday, November 12, considered both sides of the debate on which player the team should commit to long-term, if either.

Dobbs … qualifies as a journeyman quarterback given his many stops and few opportunities to start. That being said, it’s impossible not to like the guy and his style of play gets fans out of their seats.

Whether Dobbs is the solution, O’Connell has to be intrigued with what he has seen. No one is questioning Cousins’ ability as a pocket passer, but if the pocket breaks down, Cousins isn’t going to save you with his [legs].

There will be plenty of talk in the coming weeks about whether the Vikings will sign Dobbs after the season, but internally you have to think the organization is willing to sit back and watch how this all plays out before making any long-term decisions.

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Josh Dobbs Draws Comparison to Former Vikings QB Case Keenum

Zulgad also compared Dobbs’ circumstances in Minnesota to those of another journeyman QB who stepped up and led the Vikings to the postseason in the pre-Cousins era.

“Dobbs has created plenty of excitement with his play, but it’s hard not to compare it to the spark the Vikings got during the 2017 season when backup Case Keenum led the team to the NFC title game after Sam Bradford was lost to injury early in the season,” Zulgad wrote.

Keenum never took another snap for Minnesota following that season and was an unsuccessful starter for approximately the next year and a half before the magic of his 2017 campaign wore off and he found himself in the role of backup once again.

Dobbs never had the opportunity to start an NFL game until late last season with the Tennessee Titans. He was 0-2 there and earned a record of 1-7 with the Arizona Cardinals over the first half of 2023. He is technically just 1-0 with the Vikings, making his career record 2-10 as an NFL starter.

Dobbs has completed 67.2% of his 64 pass attempts with Minnesota, gaining 426 yards and throwing for 3 touchdowns against zero interceptions, per Pro Football Reference. He has also rushed the ball 15 times for 110 yards and 2 scores.

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Kirk Cousins’ Value to Vikings Tied to Josh Dobbs’ Play Down Stretch

Dobbs may be Keenum or he may be a player with a higher ceiling and more longevity. One thing is for certain, he is going to be worth more than $2 million annually on the open market come March 2024 if the Vikings don’t lock him up on an extension before then.

And that’s what the Vikings’ choice really comes down to — a value decision between Cousins, Dobbs and whatever best options the team can find between rookie Jaren Hall, next year’s draft and free agency.

Given the current nature of the QB market, any veteran with a track record of sustained winning is probably going to cost more than he’s actually worth, and there will be minimal options available. The draft will be hit or miss for Minnesota (6-4), as the Vikings appear on track to make the playoffs, which will have the team picking somewhere in the 20s. Hall might be good, but he suffered a concussion less than one quarter into his professional career and the jury will probably remain out for the rest of 2023.

That leaves Cousins and Dobbs. Minnesota chose not to extend Cousins long-term in either of the previous two offseasons and will need him to take a discount to make returning to the fold a legitimate option. But even if Cousins is willing to take less, he’s going to want multiple years, which will tie the Vikings to the QB into his late 30s.

Dobbs has gone a long way toward earning himself a pay day in just two games with the Vikings, but buyers have to beware of a QB who floated around the league for five years before getting his first shot, then earned a 2-10 record in his first 12 starts.

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