As teams begin cutting players ahead of NFL free agency next month, the pool of talent is growing for organizations like the Minnesota Vikings.
The Vikings are expected to make several difficult personnel choices of their own in the days and weeks ahead, as general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah attempts to assemble a younger and cheaper roster constructed within his own vision for the franchise. New free agents Minnesota can sign at value will be significant parts of filling in the gaps the team is unable to address via the draft.
Running back is a good example of a position at which the Vikings, and several other teams, might hunt value on the open market. That makes the Tampa Bay Buccaneers‘ release of Leonard Fournette on February 28 a meaningful move as free agency approaches.
ESPN’s Adam Schefter broke the news of Fournette’s pending free agency via Instagram.
“The Bucs will release RB Leonard Fournette before the new league year begins March 15, a source confirmed to ESPN,” Schefter wrote. “Fournette told the Tampa Bay Times he asked for his release.”
Fournette’s Play Tapered Off in Tampa Bay, But Can See Resurgence With Vikings
GettyRunning back Leonard Fournette of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers carries the ball during a game against the Arizona Cardinals at State Farm Stadium on December 25, 2022 in Glendale, Arizona. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)
Tampa Bay will pay Fournette $2 million in guaranteed money before saving $2 million by releasing him prior to March 19, per NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero. The former first-round pick in 2017 (No. 4 overall) asked the Bucs for his freedom just one year into a three-year, $21 million contract.
Fournette will play his seventh NFL season in 2023 at the age of 28 and could be looking for one final big pay day. However, the running back’s production slipped year-over-year both in terms of touchdowns scored and rushing yards gained. The most alarming dip was in average yards per attempt — Fournette rushed for 4.5 yards per carry in 2021 as compared to 3.5 yards per carry last season, per Pro Football Reference.
Part of that decline could be age, but some of Fournette’s struggles were clearly due to major injuries along Tampa Bay’s offensive line and a passing game that opposing defenses generally did not have to respect. With quarterback Tom Brady’s retirement, the Bucs look like a sinking ship, in which case Fournette’s release is simply a life raft to carry him to more promising waters.
Running Back Dalvin Cook, Vikings Appear Headed For Messy Divorce
GettyRunning back Dalvin Cook of the Minnesota Vikings carries the ball during a game against the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field on January 8, 2023 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Quinn Harris/Getty Images)
As fellow division winners in what was also a relatively weak division in 2022, the Vikings can offer Fournette the proverbial change in weather he’s seeking.
Running back Dalvin Cook does not appear long for Minnesota considering his $14.1 million salary cap hit in 2023 and the near $7 million the team can save against its cap number by cutting him this offseason. If he stays with the Vikings next year, Cook will be playing in the third year of a five-year contract worth $63 million in total and would carry cap hits of $15.6 million and $13.5 million over the following two seasons, respectively.
Paying a running back that much is not part of Adofo-Mensah’s vision, which is influenced heavily by a background as an analytics proponent across his entire NFL career. Re-signing free agent running back Alexander Mattison may not be part of his vision either, depending on what kind of deal the backup RB is looking for. Spotrac projects Mattison’s market value at $2.2 million in 2023.
Mattison will come cheaper than Fournette. He has also played two fewer professional seasons and has less tread on his tires year-to-year because of a backup role. That said, Mattison doesn’t have Fournette’s pedigree as a former first-round pick or a Super Bowl champion who has rushed for more than 1,000 yards twice in his career.
Bucs general manager Jason Licht told Pelissero he still believes Fournette is a three-down caliber back in the NFL, and the statistics back up that assertion. The running back has tallied 312 receptions for 2,219 yards and seven touchdowns over the course of his career.
Fournette will probably be looking for a contract in the range of the one he recently signed with the Bucs, which would slot him in at $7 million annually and cut the costs at the starting RB position by half, down from Cook’s $14 million hit. Depending on other interest around the league, Minnesota may be able to bring that number down even further into the $5 million or $6 million range annually.
Whether a three-down back is worth that amount to Adofo-Mensah is the real kicker. Either way, Minnesota could look to supplement the position by selecting a running back in the mid- to late-rounds of the upcoming NFL Draft, allowing for the flexibility to move on from Fournette in a season or two if the signing proves not to be working out.
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Vikings Poised to Replace Cook With 1st-Round RB, Super Bowl Champ