Sam Darnold Predicted to Bolt From Vikings for Big Payday from NFC Rival

Getty Quarterback Sam Darnold of the Minnesota Vikings.

The Minnesota Vikings created a double-edged sword with Sam Darnold this year, who has played so well in their system that they may have priced themselves out on the QB come free agency.

Kristopher Knox of Bleacher Report on Wednesday, Nov. 6, dubbed Darnold the top free agent of the 2025 class and named the New York Giants as one of the top two potential suitors for the quarterback come the offseason considering the consistent failings of Daniel Jones. The Tennessee Titans represented the other likely destination he mentioned.

“Darnold isn’t a slam-dunk QB option, but he has elite tools, has archetypal size (6’3″, 225 lbs), has shown incredible growth and will still only be 27 years old at the start of free agency,” Knox wrote. “In an offseason that features few other free agent signal callers and a questionable quarterback draft class, Darnold is poised to be the biggest name on the market.”

Knox’s assessment falls in line with a projection from Spotrac managing editor Mike Ginnitti, who predicted last month that Darnold will command a four-year, $160 million contract in free agency — a deal he described as one equivalent to “cap adjusted Baker [Mayfield].”

Mayfield earned a $100 million deal from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last offseason. And while Ginnitti used the Las Vegas Raiders as his example of a team willing to pay Darnold that money, the Raiders and the Giants are similar destinations in similar situations. Both teams are 2-7 and currently sitting in last place in their current divisions.

Each also employs a head coach who could be facing the ax if they don’t turn their situations around next season in Antonio Pierce and Brian Daboll, respectively.

Sam Darnold’s Play Has Dipped Significantly Over Past Month

GettyQuarterback Sam Darnold of the Minnesota Vikings.

Darnold played the first month of the season as one of the top QBs in the league, but has quieted down statistically since then. His two primary issues have been an increased number of turnovers as well as a bump in sacks taken.

Minnesota’s QB has turned the football over a total of six times in the past four games, tallying 4 interceptions and 2 lost fumbles, on the way to a 2-2 record. The Vikings started off the season 4-0 and won their fifth straight game against the New York Jets in London, despite Darnold completing just 45% of his passes in that contest — the first in his month-long slide back toward a middle-of-the-road signal caller in the league this season.

Darnold has also taken  25 sacks through eight contests, a number that has jumped over the second half of that stretch. Opposing defenses have gotten to Darnold 15 times in the past four games, which has made the offense considerably less effective over that span.

The loss of left tackle Christian Darrisaw for the year to a knee injury against the Los Angeles Rams in Minnesota’s seventh game has been a contributing factor, though Darnold’s lack of pocket mobility was proving a problem even before the offensive lineman’s departure six quarters ago.

Presence of J.J. McCarthy on Vikings’ Roster Complicates Sam Darnold’s Future With Franchise

GettyQuarterback J.J. McCarthy of the Minnesota Vikings.

Despite Darnold’s relative downturn over the past month, the Vikings would still have to consider re-signing him in the offseason if the price was right.

The problem, however, is that the free-agent market for quarterbacks is likely to be relatively bare. Hence Knox’s assessment that Darnold will be the top available player come March 2025.

Minnesota is between a rock and a hard place when it comes to paying a QB big money in free agency, as the franchise spent the No. 10 overall pick in the 2024 draft on rookie J.J. McCarthy. McCarthy injured his knee in the first preseason game this summer and will miss the entire year, so Minnesota will not get a chance to assess his talent/readiness at the NFL level until next season.

As such, the Vikings are likely to look for an established — but affordable — backup quarterback next offseason to play behind McCarthy, as they see what they have in their investment.