Welcome to Heavy In The Trenches, a weekly Wednesday column by Heavy’s NFL insider Matt Lombardo, bringing you insight on the latest storylines and rumblings around the league. You can follow Matt on Twitter @MattLombardoNFL.
The New York Giants’ unexpected success and likely run to the postseason are going to create some fascinating offseason decisions.
Prior to the 2022 season, after the Giants declined to exercise quarterback Daniel Jones’ fifth-year option, and running back Saquon Barkley took the field playing on his, there was a time when it seemed likely both would be playing elsewhere in 2023.
Then, the Giants’ 7-2 start happened.
So, now what?
New York’s offense has been powered by Barkley, who leads the NFL with 931 rushing yards through Week 10, as Jones has navigated the most efficient season of his career.
As CBS Sports points out, Jones is one of just two quarterbacks to have thrown an interception on fewer than 1% of his passes, at 0.8% of his attempts. The other? Tom Brady.
Jones, who threw 29 interceptions in his first 38 career games, has just 2 picks through 10 weeks. He hasn’t thrown an interception since Week 3. Credit to the tutelage of new head coach Brian Daboll and Mike Kafka for crafting a scheme to the 25-year-old’s strengths.
This season, only three running backs; Tennessee Titans’ Derrick Henry, Las Vegas Raiders’ Josh Jacobs, and Barkley, are averaging more than 100 rushing yards per game through the first 10 weeks.
Two key players in need of two contracts, both are which are likely hoping to be long-term. How does general manager Joe Schoen walk the salary cap tightrope?
The Giants are projected to have $53.5 million in cap space — the fourth-most across the NFL according to Spotrac — so finding a reasonable way to keep both Barkley and Jones without breaking the bank is crucial for Schoen.
.@Saquon dominance has become a weekly occurrence. Sunday was no exception. 😤
During the Giants’ Week 9 bye week, the Giants and Barkley engaged in talks on a long-term extension, with a November 13 report from NFL Network surfacing that Barkley’s camp is seeking a deal that pays him in the range of Christian McCaffrey’s mega-extension worth $64 million with $38 million guaranteed over the four-year deal.
Not everyone agrees McCaffrey is the measuring stick. And with McCaffery’s injury concerns piling up following the drying of the ink, running back contracts are becoming more of a liability than leisure.
A former general manager, who currently works in an NFL front office, told Heavy he believes the Giants will most likely try to sign Barkley to a three-year extension, rather than a four-year pact.
“Saquon is having a career year,” CBS Sports salary cap expert and former NFL agent Joel Corry told Heavy. “But, I’m not going anywhere Christian McCaffrey’s deal if the Giants. I’d be more comfortable in the Nick Chubb range as the Giants with the franchise tag in my back pocket.”
Chubb’s contract could be a reasonable range for Barkley and the Giants. In 2021, the Browns committed $36.6 million to Chubb over four years, including just north of $17 million fully guaranteed. The extension makes Chubb the sixth-highest-paid running back by AAV in the league. And so far, he’s met expectations, rushing for over 900 yards and 11 touchdowns in 10 weeks.
“You have to remember that it’s a 17 game-season and soon to be 18,” the former GM told Heavy. “He already has the injury history that the team and the agent have to know impacts all of this. Plus, the winning teams are going to have 2 or 3 top running backs. He’s a special talent, but you don’t necessarily need a special talent at that position to win a Super Bowl.”
The New York Giants ‘Predicament’
Schoen and the Giants are in a predicament. Especially given the fact that the franchise tag for a quarterback in 2023 is projected by Spotrac to be $29.7 million. Meanwhile, the running back tag is expected to be just $9.57 million.
“The best thing to happen to Saquon is that the Giants may have to tag Daniel Jones,” an agent who represents several prominent running backs told Heavy. “So I think they let him test the market and basically say they’ll match whatever everyone else says. Chances are, Saquon’s deal will come in around $12 million per season.”
When healthy, Barkley has the track record of being one of the league’s more dominant runners, and a vital cog in the Giants’ offense. As for Jones, his situation is a bit more complicated.
Daboll and Kafka have worked wonders for Jones’ ball security, but the production is underwhelming. In 10 weeks, Jones has passed for only 1,596 yards with 8 touchdowns to 2 interceptions.
“The problem with Jones is they could sign him to a middling deal,” a second agent told Heavy. “But, he’s hard to replace, but may be harder to keep … if you have a better option.”
Jones has played the Giants out of reach of any of the top-four quarterback prospects in the 2023 NFL draft but doesn’t have a consistent enough track record of performing as one of the league’s top passers.
New York seemed primed to let Jones test the free agent waters by declining his fifth-year option, punting on an additional year to evaluate his progress and his fit in Daboll’s scheme. It seemed back in April, the Giants had already decided Jones’ future.
Jones’ play entering Thanksgiving may have changed the conversation.
“Quarterbacks are generally more valuable than running backs,” Corry points out. “But, Barkley’s 35 carries versus Jones’ 17 pass attempts last game might be telling. If the Giants feel Jones won’t have a strong free agent market, then Barkley probably gets tagged if a choice needs to be made.”
Week 11 NFL Power Rankings
1. Philadelphia Eagles (8-1)
2. Kansas City Chiefs (7-2)
3. Minnesota Vikings (8-1)
4. Miami Dolphins (7-3)
5. Buffalo Bills (6-3)
6. Baltimore Ravens (6-3)
7. San Francisco 49ers (5-4)
8. New York Giants (7-2)
9. Dallas Cowboys (6-3)
10. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-5)
Quote of the Week: Eagles WR A.J. Brown
“Of course I want to win, but now all this 17-0 s*** is over with. That was a wakeup, how are you going to respond? It’s all good. This was a game … Sometimes you get hit in the mouth, but how you respond … Hopefully we respond by getting back up and fighting back.” – Philadelphia Eagles WR A.J. Brown, following the 32-21 loss to the Washington Commanders
Larry Csonka and the surviving members of the 1972 Miami Dolphins could finally toast their champagne after the Eagles’ first loss of the season in Week 10, falling from the ranks of the NFL’s last unbeaten.
After the Houston Texans and Washington Commanders exposed the vulnerabilities in the Eagles’ rushing defense up front, especially with rookie nose tackle Jordan Davis sidelined, Philadelphia is now staring down the barrel at games against the Indianapolis Colts’ Jonathan Taylor, Green Bay Packers’ Aaron Jones, Tennessee Titans’ Derrick Henry, and the aforementioned Saquon Barkley over the next month.
That’s bad news for the Eagles, after allowing 168 and 152 rushing yards to the Tennessee Titans and Commanders in consecutive weeks, especially since Barkley and Henry are averaging more than 100 rushing yards per game.
Brown and the now 8-1 Eagles now have little margin for error in an NFC East race that has become the most competitive in the NFL.
Philadelphia still has a pair of games against the 7-2 Giants and 6-3 Dallas Cowboys that just might shape the division and conference playoff chases. How Brown and the Eagles respond to their first loss of the season could determine their chances of surviving the second-half gauntlet as the NFC’s No. 1 seed.
Final Thought: Justin Fields Rising
Justin Fields is in the midst of the most prolific stretch of his career, and the Chicago Bears quarterback’s success is building on itself each week.
Since Week 8, Fields ranks first among all NFL players in rushing touchdowns (4), second in rushing yards (385), second in passing touchdowns (7), and is fourth in the league in passer rating (108.9), solidifying his status as the Bears’ long-term solution at quarterback.
Over the past several weeks, Bears offensive coordinator Luke Getsy seems to have tailored Chicago’s schemes to Fields’ strengths. The former first-round pick has responded by turning a corner in his development while making equally dynamic plays as a passer as with his legs on the run.
“Luke [Getsy] has a really good understanding of the things that allow Justin to be successful,” renowned quarterback coach Quincy Avery, who trains Fields, told Heavy. “They’ve been able to put together a game plan to be stress defenses by opening some things up in the passing game.
“They’ve also done a really good job of allowing Justin to move outside of the pocket on bootlegs, short-rolls and have created situations where he can be a truly dynamic athlete with his legs. You’re seeing the best of him in both aspects, and they’re putting together a plan that’s allowing him to be successful in the future.”
The Bears have a long way to go climb the ladder in the NFC North. Particularly when it comes to fortifying the offensive line in front of Fields, and continuing to surround him with capable playmakers on the perimeter.
However, Fields seems to have resoundingly answered the biggest question of all; whether he is the type of player you build around.
Through 10 games, Fields has completed 58.9% of his passes for 1,489 yards with 12 touchdowns to 7 interceptions, while rushing for a team-leading 749 yards and 6 more scores.
“Justin has a lot of talent, I like him a lot,” an NFC executive told Heavy. “And they’re being really smart because they aren’t walking in there saying, ‘You have to run my offense.’ No, you have to adjust your offense to your players. Especially your quarterback. That’s what they’re doing, similar to Baltimore … they know what it takes for Lamar [Jackson] to be successful, and the Bears figured out what Fields does well, and they’re doing it.”
The seeds for Fields’ strong second half of the season were planted last offseason during sessions with Avery.
“What we did a lot of, we switched up his stance in the pocket,” Avery explained. “Seeing his basic balance, his ability to throw on rhythm and timing throws, we’ve seen that get better and better throughout the season.
“Knowing how athletic he is, how well he does when he’s able to move, we knew he’s talented in that way, but it took him being good at the mundane for those things to flourish.”
.@bears @justnfields rapid development makes any analyst in this business watch every play of every week! He just keeps getting better & better. He makes me wanna watch everything b/c the success lies in the tiniest of details #dabears #BaldysBreakdowns
Beyond the impressive stat lines, beyond the macro improvements Fields has made, the former Ohio State standout has flashed improved accuracy from the pocket. In recent weeks, Fields has flashed a willingness to fire the ball into tight windows on the run. That’s not by accident.
“What you’re seeing is an improvement in confidence,” Avery explains. “And an improvement in confidence often looks like more accuracy, but he’s able to have the belief in himself to throw the ball into tight windows, like we’ve seen him now be successful at the NFL level.
“He’s making the routine plays look routine, which is necessary to be a good quarterback in the NFL. And, we’re starting to see him do things he was doing in college, and the reason he was drafted in the first round.”
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Giants Face Major ‘Predicament’ With Saquon Barkley & Daniel Jones