NFL Agents & Execs Split on Saquon Barkley’s Future With Giants

Getty New York Giants RB Saquon Barkley.

Saquon Barkley talked the talk all offseason.

In Sunday’s Week 1 opener, Barkley backed it up by walking the walk in the New York Giants‘ thrilling come-from-behind victory over the Tennessee Titans, rushing for a league-high, and franchise season-opener record, 164 yards with a touchdown and the game-winning 2-point conversion.

What Barkley does for an encore the rest of 2022 just might dictate his, and New York’s, future.

Barkley repeatedly stressed throughout the offseason his aim to silence his critics, put his past injuries — a torn ACL and a pair of high-ankle sprains — behind him and live up to his billing as the No. 2 overall pick in the 2018 draft.

Against the Titans, he showed outstanding vision before hitting his spots and looked like his old explosive self. In a lot of ways, he was the driving force in New York’s 21-20 win. It was a strong opening statement from one of the NFL’s more talented and versatile backs.

But what happens at season’s end is one of the more fascinating and difficult decisions the Giants must make — especially when it comes to a player who has been built up as the face of the franchise and is pivotal to its success.

“If [Barkley] rushes for 2,800 yards and 17 touchdowns, you’ll pay him whatever he wants, right?” an NFC pro personnel director told Heavy when asked how the Giants might handle Barkley’s future.

If Barkley leads the league in rushing, and the Giants make a return to the postseason for just the second time since 2016, New York would likely happily make the 25-year-old one of the highest-paid players at his position.

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NFL Agent: ‘Highly Doubt’ Giants Give Barkley ‘Long-Term Deal’

Given Barkley’s injury concerns and the very legitimate drop-off in production for running backs after putting pen to paper on their second deals, a long-term extension is only one possible outcome. It also might be the least likely.

“I’d highly doubt they give him a long-term deal,” a prominent agent who represents multiple running backs told Heavy. “I’ve got to believe they use the franchise tag. The team has all of the leverage in this situation. Plus, it’s a new front office. They didn’t draft him. They don’t have any allegiance to him.”

Those sentiments were echoed by CBS Sports salary cap and contracts expert Joel Corry, who told Heavy that Barkley should expect to play one year on the franchise tag in 2023.

This season, the tag pays running backs $9.5 million, and that figure should rise this coming offseason.

As the agent pointed out, new Giants GM Joe Schoen did not invest the No. 2 overall pick adding a running back to a roster with a porous offensive line, legitimate questions about the future of an aging and declining quarterback and a nonexistent pass rush. That was Schoen’s predecessor, Dave Gettleman.

Unlike Gettleman, Schoen has a firm grasp of cap management and has adopted a steadfast commitment to not avoiding the sins of his predecessor, including pushing money into future years and compounding the damage done by poor decisions for the sake of hoping for success on a wing and a prayer in the present.

As a result, only the Chicago Bears are projected to have more cap space than the Giants’ $56.1 million in 2023. Then, in 2024 New York has upward of $202.8 million in spending flexibility, the third-most in the NFL.

That’s a lot of ammunition for Schoen to get down to the hard work of rebuilding the Giants’ roster.

Would Schoen commit almost 20% of the Giants’ cap space in 2023 to a running back? Especially knowing what we seem to know about Schoen’s grasp of positional value?

“If [Barkley] plays 17 games and doesn’t have anything lingering, I could see them committing to him,” the personnel director said. “But, it’s really hard to say because only they know what his medical situation is, and it depends significantly on how the Giants value the running back position. Only they know the answers to those two questions.”

What Could a Barkley Extension Look Like?

Barkley, who entered this season aiming to put those questions to bed, is due $7.2 million, while playing under his fifth-year option.

Multiple league sources suggest that if Barkley continues on the torrid pace set by his debut, he could be in line for a three- to four-year extension that averages between $15 million and $18 million annually.

“He has to sustain this level to be paid at that top level,” former NFL Executive of the Year and Heavy contributor Randy Mueller said. “And his health is a top criteria. I do think he’s finally with a coach who knows exactly how to use him in a system that really fits him.

“What impressed me most about Sunday is his ability to be productive above, and beyond the scheme. He was making guys miss, lowering his pads on contact and getting an extra yard or two. When a coach knows a running back can make a play — even though that play may not be blocked perfectly — you can surely make a case for paying him, as long as he can produce on all three downs. Barkley’s six catches were just as important as his rushing yards and really factor into how much a team pays him. He was the definition of a complete back in Tennessee.”