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The Philadelphia Eagles (11-5) travel to East Rutherford, New Jersey to take on the New York Giants (5-11) in a Week 18 NFL regular season finale with major implications for the reigning NFC Champions’ playoff seeding.
Philadelphia has lost four of its last five games, including a stunning second-half collapse against the Arizona Cardinals in Week 17. Sunday’s defeat now puts the Eagles in a position to need help in terms of securing both the NFC East championship and the No. 2 seed in the conference playoffs.
Meanwhile, the Giants have been eliminated from playoff contention, but have the opportunity to play spoiler against their division rivals.
Heavy Sports’ projections model, powered by our partners at Quarter 4, gives the Eagles a 69% chance to win, while installing Philadelphia as a full 6-point favorite over the Giants.
Here are five AI-powered predictions we have forecasted using the Heavy Sports model:
1. Low Scoring Game?
The Heavy Sports model sees the total for Sunday’s game significantly lower than the Las Vegas sports books.
Our projects have the total coming in at 39.0 points.
Meanwhile, here’s how the major sports books see Sunday’s action:
- DraftKings: 42.0 points
- Bet365: 42.0 points
- FanDuel: 41.5 points
- SugarHouseNJ: 42.0 points
- BetMGM: 42.0 points
- PointsBet: 42.0 points
- ESPN BET: 41.5 Points
2. Jalen Hurts to Under Perform?
The past month has been a brutal stretch for Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts.
Hurts was held without a passing touchdown in two of Philadelphia’s past five games, and the 25-year-old has tossed five of his 14 interceptions on the season over that span. The Heavy Sports AI Model projects Hurts to fail to reach his season average in every statistical category in the Eagles’ regular season finale.
Meanwhile, Tyrod Taylor is set to make his second consecutive start since Tommy DeVito was benched. The Heavy Sports AI model anticipates Taylor will surpass each of his season averages, including passing for 165.2 yards while completing 60.4% of his passes.
Hurts projections: 18.8 completions, 211.3 passing yards, 1.1 touchdowns, 63% completion percentage
Taylor projections: 14.3 completions, 165.2 yards, .7 touchdowns, 60.4 completion percentage.
Hurts’ projection is below his season average, but the Eagles’ quarterback has only surpassed 211 passing yards twice since Week 11.
In the first meeting between these teams, Hurts completed 24-of-38 passes for 301 yards with 1 touchdown, 1 interception and also added 34 rushing yards with 1 more score.
Meanwhile, Taylor is coming off a 319-yard outing against the Los Angeles Rams in Week 17, and has surpassed 200 yards in all three of his starts. Taylor also passed for 133 yards in the second half of the Giants’ matchup against the Eagles on Christmas.
The remnants of a Nor’easter potentially hitting the East Coast this weekend could put the running game into focus. Temperatures are expected to be in the mid-30s with light snow at kickoff, according to the Weather Channel.
3. Saquon Barkley New York Exclamation Point?
Sunday could potentially mark Saquon Barkley‘s final game in a Giants uniform, after playing the 2023 season on a one-year contract agreed to just before training camp in the aftermath of New York applying the franchise tag to the 26-year-old this spring.
Barkley enters the regular season finale on the cusp of his second consecutive 1,000-yard season, with 916 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns in 13 games.
The Heavy Sports Model projects Barkley to be a focal point of the Giants’ offense in Week 18.
Barkley projections: 15.1 rushes, 58.8 rushing yards, 0.7 TDs, 2.6 catches, 20 yards
With Taylor in the lineup, Barkley has caught 12 passes for 65 yards and a touchdown. Sunday could see Barkley featured prominently in the Giants’ passing game, against an Eagles defense that is allowing 30.94 receiving yards per game to running backs this season.
4. A.J. Brown’s Slump Continues?
A.J. Brown‘s frustrations have boiled over amid the Eagles’ downswing.
While Brown got off to a fast start to the season, and has caught 105 passes for 1,447 yards with seven touchdowns, he has not reached the end zone since November 26 against the Buffalo Bills. Meanwhile, Brown has surpassed 100 receiving yards just once in the Eagles’ past eight games.
The Heavy Sports model projects another rough afternoon for Brown.
Brown projections: 5.8 catches, 77.3 receiving yards, longest reception of 28 yards
On Christmas Day, the Giants’ secondary held Brown to 6 catches for 80 yards.
With the exception of his projected longest reception, both of Brown’s totals are below his season average. The 26-year-old star is averaging 6.6 receptions for 90.4 yards, entering Sunday’s contest.
5. Deonte Banks Closes Rookie Season on High Note
Giants cornerback Deonte Banks has had a strong rookie season, since being chosen by New York with the No. 25 overall pick in the first round of the 2023 NFL draft.
As Pro Football Focus points out, Banks is currently holding opposing quarterbacks to a meager 84.7 passer rating when targeting him.
The Heavy Sports model projects Banks to cap his rookie campaign with a stellar performance.
Banks projections: 5.2 total tackles, 4.4 solo tackles, 0.6 pass breakups
If Banks mirrors our model’s projections on Sunday, he’d surpass his average total tackles (4.2), solo tackles (3.5) and assisted tackles (0.7) through the first 15 games of his career.
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