Getty Baltimore Orioles infielder Jackson Holliday.
As we’re now two weeks into the MLB season, it’s an opportune moment to consider some MLB divisional futures bets. With a small sample size of player performances available, it’s still early enough to find value in the market.
A major storyline dominating this season has been the unfortunate spate of injuries to starting pitchers. These injuries have had a significant impact on various futures markets, prompting speculation about their causes, including the new pitch clock rule implemented last season. Eury Perez and Shane Bieber are among the pitchers slated for Tommy John surgery, with Spencer Strider possibly following suit. Additionally, in the past 3 days alone, Framber Valdez, Nick Pivetta, and Josiah Grey have all landed on the injury list with elbow issues. The repercussions of these pitcher injuries on teams’ overall performances throughout the remainder of the season will be intriguing to observe.
Given this landscape, let’s assess which teams are currently best positioned to contend for division titles.
Divisional Winners Bets
Baltimore Orioles to Win the AL East (+270, FanDuel)
While the New York Yankees appear to be the obvious choice for the AL East, boasting a league-leading 10-2 start, it’s worth considering the Baltimore Orioles as a potential threat. According to FanGraphs, the Orioles are projected to win 86.2 games, compared to the Yankees’ projection of 90.9 games, a narrow gap that suggests value in favor of the Orioles. Corbin Burnes, a top contender for the Cy Young award, has been exceptional with a 1.93 ERA and 2.78 FIP, securing 2 wins already. The Orioles’ roster is brimming with talent, including standouts like Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson, primed for breakout seasons. After a disappointing playoff exit last year, the Orioles are poised to challenge a Yankees team facing pressure, particularly with ace Gerrit Cole not at full health.
Cleveland Guardians to win the AL Central (+250, FanDuel)
Despite the loss of ace Shane Bieber, the Cleveland Guardians have surprised many with their stellar 9-3 start, boasting an impressive 35 run differential. Emannuel Clase has shone in the reliever role, boasting a flawless 0.00 ERA and securing 4 saves. While Tanner Bibee and Logan Allen will need to step up in Bieber’s absence, the Guardians can rely on their potent offense to compensate. Players like Steven Kwan and Andres Gimenez have started the season strongly, posting impressive statistics. Power hitters Jose Ramirez and Josh Naylor are also performing well. Cleveland’s disciplined approach at the plate, ranking 4th in K% (18.9%) and 8th in batting average (.264), bodes well for their consistency. Although the Kansas City Royals and Detroit Tigers have made promising starts, maintaining their momentum throughout the season seems unlikely. The Minnesota Twins, despite a slow 4-6 start, remain a formidable threat in the division.
One Final Thought
With plenty of baseball still to be played, it’s an ideal moment to pinpoint teams with potential value to clinch their divisions. Keep an eye out for upcoming analyses throughout the season, featuring teams I think have solid prospects for divisional triumphs, as well as team win totals, player award markets, and other futures.
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MLB, Sports Betting, DFS
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