Getty Luis Arráez
Player props provide an additional level of thrill to wagering on sports games. They offer valuable insights into a player’s ability to perform well in daily fantasy baseball or when placing bets on your preferred sportsbook.
Our AI-powered dfsPro model projects a number of individual performances worth keeping an eye on during today‘s games. Let’s dive into some of our favorite MLB player prop bets for May 14. All statistical research is from FanGraphs.
MLB Player Prop Bets
Reid Detmers Over 17.5 Outs Recorded (-155, DraftKings)
Reid Detmers is facing a favorable matchup with the St. Louis Cardinals, who have struggled significantly against left-handed pitchers. Detmers has shown decent efficiency this season, averaging 3.9 pitches per plate appearance, and he has gone over 90 pitches in six out of eight games, indicating a long leash. Despite hitting the over in only four out of ten games this year, it’s worth noting that his misses came against top batting lineups. However, with the Cardinals ranking last in batting average, third worst in on-base percentage, and fourth worst in weighted runs created plus (wRC+), the matchup looks promising.
Additionally, recent trends show that starting left-handed pitchers have gone at least six innings in the last six games against the Cardinals, while nine out of ten starting right-handed pitchers have gone at least five innings. With these factors in mind, this play seems solid, especially considering the Los Angeles Angels bullpen situation.
Reese Olson Over 17.5 Outs Recorded (-110, DraftKings)
The Miami Marlins‘ lineup ranks among the weakest in baseball, making Reese Olson a solid choice in this matchup. Notably, Olsen has performed exceptionally well at home, covering over 19 outs in both of his previous games there.
Miami’s batting average against right-handed pitchers sits at .237 for the season, but this statistic includes Luis Arraez, their former standout player who has since been traded. One significant factor favoring Olson is Miami’s league-worst performance in drawing walks, suggesting Olson will likely focus on attacking the strike zone.
While the Detroit Tigers bullpen may not be entirely fresh, it’s not overly taxed either. Olson typically averages around 90-96 pitches per game, indicating a solid workload expectation. Trusting Olson’s talent against a struggling Miami team seems like a smart move, especially given the favorable odds at plus money.
Lock of the Day
Elehuris Montero Under 0.5 Hits (-125, DraftKings)
This seems like a great bet, considering his significant drop-off in performance away from Coors Field. Elehuris Montero’s road batting statistics over recent seasons are notably weak, with a batting average hovering around .200 and OPS ranging from .521 to .563.
In addition, his expected batting average (xBA) and strikeout rates for this season indicate ongoing struggles at the plate. Despite a slight improvement in strikeout rates, his chase rate remains alarmingly high, placing him in the 3rd percentile among qualified hitters.
Facing San Diego Padres right-hander Dylan Cease further complicates Montero’s prospects. Cease has been impressive in 2024, boasting a low ERA and xBAA, along with a high strikeout rate, particularly against right-handed batters. Montero’s career numbers against righties are mediocre, and his limited history against Cease hasn’t been favorable.
Moreover, backing this bet is the strength of the Padres bullpen, which ranks 12th in opponent batting average so far in 2024.
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