Republican GOP Presidential Polls & Probabilities: Who’s Really Ahead?

Donald Trump, 22 %

The prediction markets are slightly more bullish on Trump than they were during the summer, but bettors remain a lot more skeptical about his chances than you might imagine based on a media narrative that has painted Trump as the "frontrunner" based on his horserace polling. Trump, who has said in the past he will fund his own campaign, has been receiving some small donations. In the third quarter, his campaign has raised about $3.9 million, according to the New York Times. Although lacking in political endorsements, Trump has received some celebrity endorsements, including Mike Tyson and Gary Busey. He's gained some steam in the prediction markets because, as time has passed by, he's remained atop the horserace polls, despite a barrage of attacks. But Trump's favorability numbers remain relatively weak, and there's a long way to go before votes are cast. Trump, along with Carson and Fiorina, has never held elected office, but as polls and news outlets have suggested, this may be just what voters want. There's a struggle between angry voters who don't want a politician to be nominated and representatives and political leaders who don't think "inexperienced" is a good fit to run the country.
When asked by John Harwood of CNBC about what he's rooted in and who his model president is, Trump said he liked Ronald Reagan and thinks there is a strong movement surrounding his own campaign. "You watch. We're going to have a president that will not allow our country to be taken advantage of, and we're going to have a president that's not going to make stupid deals. I think Ronald Reagan was a very good president...It's a movement of common sense. It's a movement that we don't want to see our country being ripped off by everybody, and my theme is, 'Make America Great Again.' That movement is happening," Trump said. (Getty)