The Rest of the Country
Martin O’Malley, seen here at the last Democratic debate, is a long shot for the nomination.
Clinton maintains a national lead according to RealClearPolitics, with 43.8 percent of the vote giving her an 8.6-point lead over Sanders’s 39.7 percent, with O’Malley polling at an average of 2.3 percent. However, it’s important to note that national polls can be neutral or even negative indicators according to FiveThirtyEight, and that voters polled for these national polls may feel very differently (or not even have their preferred candidate still in the race) when their turn to vote comes.
National Polling Averages (by RealClearPolitics)
- Hillary Clinton: 43.8%
- Bernie Sanders: 39.7%
- Martin O’Malley: 2.3%
While FiveThirtyEight does not keep a national prediction and isn’t using their model for South Carolina or Nevada due to a lack of sufficient recent polling, their weighted polling averages put Clinton on top, 66 percent to 23 percent in South Carolina and 50.3 percent to 28.2 percent in Nevada. Again, these votes are more than one month away, and a lot can change between now and then.
The betting markets aggregated by PredictWise show a fall of about 1 percent per day over the week for Clinton, but she remains at an 81 percent favorite to win the Democratic nomination. Sanders has risen at about the same rate, to a current 18 percent shot at taking the nomination, with Martin O’Malley flat at 1 percent since early December.
News of the Day
Democratic Primary & Debate Schedule
Debate Schedule
South Carolina: January 17, NBC
Wisconsin: February 11, PBS
Florida: March 9, Univision
Iowa: February 1
New Hampshire: February 9
Nevada: February 20
South Carolina: February 27
Super Tuesday (Alabama, American Samoa, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oklahoma,
Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia): March 1
Kansas, Louisiana: March 5
Maine: March 6
Michigan, Mississippi, Democrats Abroad: March 8
Northern Mariana Islands: March 12
Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio: March 15
Arizona, Idaho, Utah: March 22
Alaska, Hawaii, Washington: March 26
Wisconsin: April 5
Wyoming: April 9
New York: April 19
Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island: April 26
Indiana: May 3
West Virginia: May 10
Kentucky, Oregon: May 17
California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Dakota, South Dakota: June 7
Washington, D.C.: June 14