Democratic Polls for Jan. 14: State of the Race in Iowa & New Hampshire

Bernie Sanders, here at President Obama’s State of the Union address, is very close in the latest Iowa poll. (Getty)

We’re just 17 days from the primary season’s first contest in Iowa, and a new poll from that state is showing a much tighter race than we’d seen before. The Des Moines Register poll, nationally top-rated for accuracy by FiveThirtyEight, shows Hillary Clinton’s lead almost evaporating against Bernie Sanders, with Martin O’Malley far behind. New Hampshire polls, meanwhile, still strongly lean Sanders, according to RealClearPolitics. The betting markets (according to PredictWise) and Iowa FiveThirtyEight forecasts favor Hillary.

Here’s what you need to know:

Iowa

Hillary Clinton, seen here at the Black and Brown Democratic Forum, is leading in Iowa, but by a slimming margin. (Getty)

The Des Moines Register Iowa Poll shows Hillary with just a 2-point lead, 42 percent to 40 percent, with Martin O’Malley at 4 percent. While this is undoubtedly encouraging news for Bernie, the non-horserace data is a little less encouraging: Clinton’s slide from 48 points in the December poll mirrors a 6-percent rise in “uncommitted” likely caucus-goers, from 8 to 14 percent, meaning that the closing of the lead is not due to Sanders gaining support, and Hillary still has time to regain her now-undecided supporters. Moreover, Sanders is drawing 27 percent of his support from counties holding the state’s three major universities, but delegates are assigned in Iowa based on precincts, not overall voter percentages, and a candidate whose support is packed into a small area of the state may end up with far fewer delegates than his polling numbers would suggest.

In polling averages provided by RealClearPolitics, Clinton maintains a 4-point lead, 46.8 to 42.8, with O’Malley at 5.2 percent.

Iowa Polling Averages (by RealClearPolitics)

• Hillary Clinton: 46.8%
• Bernie Sanders: 42.8%
• Martin O’Malley: 5.2%

FiveThirtyEight, which utilizes factors beyond polls in its predictions, gives Hillary Clinton an 82 percent chance to take the state, with Sanders at 18 percent and O’Malley at less than 1 percent. (Due to rounding, the sum of the averages exceeds 100.)

FiveThirtyEight Forecast for Iowa

New Hampshire

Bernie Sanders at a campaign event in New York City. The Vermont Senator continues to lead in New Hampshire. (Getty)

Using from periods ranging from January 2 to January 10, Sanders leads Hillary Clinton by 6.2 points, 48.8 percent to 42.6 percent, with O’Malley holding 3 percent. Sanders’s largest lead, 14 points via Monmouth poll, is also the most recent, and has the second largest sample.

New Hampshire Polling Averages (by RealClearPolitics)

• Bernie Sanders: 48.8%
• Hillary Clinton: 42.6%
• Martin O’Malley: 3%

FiveThirtyEight, however, still favors Hillary, 57 percent to 43 percent. A possible reason: voting results from previous states have been hugely influential in the races to come, and the sunny projection they show for Clinton in Iowa certainly impacts their model.

FiveThirtyEight Forecast for New Hampshire

Click the “next page” button below for a breakdown of the national polls and a look at the GOP primary schedule.

The Rest of the Country

Martin O’Malley, seen here at the last Democratic debate, is a long shot for the nomination.

Clinton maintains a national lead according to RealClearPolitics, with 43.8 percent of the vote giving her an 8.6-point lead over Sanders’s 39.7 percent, with O’Malley polling at an average of 2.3 percent. However, it’s important to note that national polls can be neutral or even negative indicators according to FiveThirtyEight, and that voters polled for these national polls may feel very differently (or not even have their preferred candidate still in the race) when their turn to vote comes.

National Polling Averages (by RealClearPolitics)

• Hillary Clinton: 43.8%
• Bernie Sanders: 39.7%
• Martin O’Malley: 2.3%

While FiveThirtyEight does not keep a national prediction and isn’t using their model for South Carolina or Nevada due to a lack of sufficient recent polling, their weighted polling averages put Clinton on top, 66 percent to 23 percent in South Carolina and 50.3 percent to 28.2 percent in Nevada. Again, these votes are more than one month away, and a lot can change between now and then.

The betting markets aggregated by PredictWise show a fall of about 1 percent per day over the week for Clinton, but she remains at an 81 percent favorite to win the Democratic nomination. Sanders has risen at about the same rate, to a current 18 percent shot at taking the nomination, with Martin O’Malley flat at 1 percent since early December.

News of the Day

Democratic Primary & Debate Schedule

Debate Schedule

South Carolina: January 17, NBC

Wisconsin: February 11, PBS

Florida: March 9, Univision

Iowa: February 1

New Hampshire: February 9

Nevada: February 20

South Carolina: February 27

Super Tuesday (Alabama, American Samoa, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oklahoma,
Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia): March 1

Kansas, Louisiana: March 5

Maine: March 6

Michigan, Mississippi, Democrats Abroad: March 8

Northern Mariana Islands: March 12

Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio: March 15

Arizona, Idaho, Utah: March 22

Alaska, Hawaii, Washington: March 26

Wisconsin: April 5

Wyoming: April 9

New York: April 19

Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island: April 26

Indiana: May 3

West Virginia: May 10

Kentucky, Oregon: May 17

California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Dakota, South Dakota: June 7

Washington, D.C.: June 14