New Hampshire
Martin O’Malley, here campaigning in South Carolina, is a long shot for the nomination. (Getty)
A new poll by CNN/WMUR shows Sanders with a 27-point lead over Clinton, 60 percent to 33 percent, with O’Malley taking 1 percent. In an MSNBC interview, a Clinton staffer dismissed the poll as “an outlier,” not entirely incorrectly: Sanders’s lead is almost double his highest in other recent polls. However, it does follow a trend where no New Hampshire poll since January 6 shows a Sanders lead.
The new poll shifts the RealClearPolitics aggregation of recent polls to a Sanders lead of 11.4 points, with 51.2 percent to Clinton’s 39.8 with O’Malley holding 3 percent.
New Hampshire Polling Averages (by RealClearPolitics)
- Bernie Sanders: 51.2%
- Hillary Clinton: 39.8%
- Martin O’Malley: 3%
FiveThirtyEight also shifts their projection to Sanders, 63 percent to 37 percent, in its polls-plus forecast. In their polls-only model, Sanders rises to an 85 percent favorite, compared to Clinton’s 15.
FiveThirtyEight Polls-Plus Forecast for New Hampshire
The Rest of the Country
The Democratic Presidential primary field at Sunday’s debate. (Getty)
A new Monmouth poll shows Clinton with a 15-point national lead, with 52 percent of the vote to Sanders’s 37. Compared to Clinton’s 25-point lead in the NBC News poll taken before Sunday’s debate, the new poll (with Sunday and Monday included in the polling period) shows a significant gain for Sanders. The RealClearPolitics averages update to include the latest poll shows Clinton’s lead at 13.2 points at 51.2 percent, with Sanders taking 38 and O’Malley taking 2.2.
National Polling Averages (by RealClearPolitics)
- Hillary Clinton: 51.2%
- Bernie Sanders: 38%
- Martin O’Malley: 2.2%
While FiveThirtyEight does not keep a national prediction and isn’t using their polls-plus model for South Carolina or Nevada due to a lack of sufficient recent polling, their weighted polling averages put Clinton on top, 53.4 percent to 26.7 percent in South Carolina and 50.2 percent to 28.2 percent in Nevada. Again, these votes are more than one month away, and a lot can change between now and then.
The betting markets aggregated by PredictWise show Clinton falling 3 points to an 82 percent favorite to win the Democratic nomination. Sanders rose 3 points to 17 percent, with Martin O’Malley staying at 1 percent.
News of the Day
Democratic Primary & Debate Schedule
Debate Schedule
Wisconsin: February 11, PBS
Florida: March 9, Univision
Iowa: February 1
New Hampshire: February 9
Nevada: February 20
South Carolina: February 27
Super Tuesday (Alabama, American Samoa, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oklahoma,
Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia): March 1
Kansas, Louisiana: March 5
Maine: March 6
Michigan, Mississippi, Democrats Abroad: March 8
Northern Mariana Islands: March 12
Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio: March 15
Arizona, Idaho, Utah: March 22
Alaska, Hawaii, Washington: March 26
Wisconsin: April 5
Wyoming: April 9
New York: April 19
Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island: April 26
Indiana: May 3
West Virginia: May 10
Kentucky, Oregon: May 17
California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Dakota, South Dakota: June 7
Washington, D.C.: June 14
