GOP Polls for Jan. 13: State of the Race in Iowa & New Hampshire

Donald Trump campaigns in Iowa, where he’s closed his deficit to Ted Cruz significantly and possibly taken the top spot. (Getty)

We’re just 19 days from the Iowa caucus, and every day promises a new major event. The next debate field has been set, new polls are coming out several at a time, and every new development becomes more and more impactful.

One of the nation’s most reliable polls shows Ted Cruz edging Donald Trump in Iowa, with Marco Rubio third. Trump continues to lead in New Hampshire and nationally, with Cruz running second nationally and Rubio leading a wide-open runner-up field in New Hampshire.

Here’s a look at the state of the race:

Iowa

Ted Cruz campaigns in Iowa, where recent polls have his lead over Donald Trump slipping. (Getty)

The Des Moines Register poll, one of the most respected polls in the nation, showed Wednesday that Cruz maintains a 3-point lead over Trump, 25 percent to 22 percent, with Rubio taking 12 percent and Ben Carson 11. Trump gained one point over the previous Register poll, but analysts at the paper suggest his momentum may be stalling: nearly half of Trump supporters (47 percent) list Cruz as their second choice, to Trump’s 26 percent of Cruz voters, and Cruz has completely convinced 51 percent of his voters, meaning there may not be room for Trump to make an upward move. (For his part, 64 percent of Trump voters have made their minds up). And although it was released the day after the Republicans announced a main stage debate field without him, a fifth-place finish for Rand Paul (5 percent) in a historically reliable poll could add fuel for his protest of that decision.

While the “gold standard” poll still favors Cruz, it’s important to note that Public Policy Polling, Quinnipiac, and American Research Group conducted polls within the same period that all show leads for Trump. The monthly polling averages collected by RealClearPolitics show Cruz with a 0.5-point lead over Trump at 26.7 to 26.2 percent, with Rubio running third at 13 percent and Carson fourth at 9.

Iowa Polling Averages (by RealClearPolitics)

The betting markets as aggregated by PredictWise have reacted to the Iowa news with a big rise for Cruz, up from a month-long low of 62 percent to 76 percent, near his high of 79. Trump falls back to 18% from the low 30s, with Marco Rubio, Ben Carson and John Kasich all in single digits.

New Hampshire

A polling surge came just in time to put John Kasich into Thursday’s main debate. (Getty)

With a strict cutoff of fifth in either state or sixth nationall for Thursday’s GOP debate, several candidates were counting on good poll numbers to make the main stage. Monmouth, American Research Group, and NH1/Reach polls all place John Kasich tied for the runner-up position, at between 12 and 14 percent of the vote, raising him from the tie for fifth place that put him on the main-stage bubble. The same three polls all show Donald Trump maintaining his lead by between 11 and 20 points, with Marco Rubio between second and fifth.

The RealClearPolitics averages show Trump with a 17-point lead over Rubio, 30.2 percent to 13.2 percent, with Kasich third at 11.2, Cruz at 10.8, Chris Christie at 9.5, and Jeb Bush at 8.7. Huffpost Pollster, which did not include the NH1/Reach poll, has Trump with 29.1 percent to Rubio’s 14.2 percent, with Cruz at 11.9, Christie at 11.3, Kasich at 10.5, and Bush at 7.8.

New Hampshire Polling Averages (by RealClearPolitics)

The PredictWise betting markets are almost odds-on for Trump in New Hampshire at 49 percent, off a weekly high of 55 percent. Rubio is at 16 percent, followed by Christie at 12 and Cruz at 11, with everyone else in single digits.

Click the “next page” button below for a breakdown of the national polls and a look at the GOP primary schedule.

The Rest of the Country

Rand Paul, seen here at the December 15 debate, failed to qualify for the main stage at Thursday’s debate and says he will not participate in the undercard.

A CBS/New York Times poll released Tuesday show Trump with a 17-point national lead over Cruz at 36 percent to 19 percent, with Rubio at 12 and Bush tied with Ben Carson at 6 percent. These numbers are consistent with their RealClearPolitics averages, which show Trump’s 35 percent share at a 16-point lead over Cruz at 19 percent, with Rubio at 11.3 and Carson at 8.

National Polling Averages (According to RealClearPolitics)

In PredictWise’s aggregation of the betting markets, Trump has pulled even with longtime leader Rubio, each taking 33 percent. Cruz dips a little from his weekly high to 22 percent, Bush holds at 10, and Christie rounds out the board at 3 percent.

News of the Day

GOP Primary & Debate Schedule

Debate Schedule

South Carolina: January 14, Fox Business

Iowa: January 28, Fox News

New Hampshire: February 6, ABC News

South Carolina: February 13, CBS

Texas: February 26, NBC/Telemundo/National Review

Location TBD: March 2016, Fox News

Florida: Date TBD, CNN/Salem Radio

Primary Schedule
Iowa: February 1

New Hampshire: February 9

South Carolina: February 20

Nevada: February 23

Super Tuesday (Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Dakota, Oklahoma,
Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, Wyoming): March 1

Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine: March 5

Puerto Rico: March 6

Hawaii, Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi: March 8

Guam, Washington, D.C.: March 12

Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, Northern Mariana Islands, Ohio: March 15

Virgin Islands: March 19

American Samoa, Arizona, Utah: March 22

Wisconsin: April 5

New York: April 19

Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island: April 26

Indiana: May 3

Nebraska, West Virginia: May 10

Oregon: May 17

Washington: May 24

California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, South Dakota: June 7

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