GOP Polls for Jan. 18: State of the Race in Iowa & New Hampshire

The Rest of the Country

Jeb Bush gained the endorsement of South Carolina Senator and former candidate Lindsey Graham, leading to a noticeable upward swing in the polls. (Getty)

Thursday’s national poll shows Trump with a 13-point lead over Cruz at 33 percent to 20 percent, with Rubio polling at 13 percent and Ben Carson 12. This slightly lowers Trump’s RealClearPolitics average of 34.5 percent, to Cruz’s 19.3, Rubio’s 11.8, and Carson’s 9. Remember, though, that national polls feature voters who won’t formally make their selection for some time, at which point their current choice may not still be in the race. National polls are usually seen as non-predictive for this reason.

National Polling Averages (According to RealClearPolitics)

Although the same disclaimer applies to state polls for still-distant primaries as national polls, new South Carolina and Utah polls offer some interesting insights.

In the South Carolina poll, Jeb Bush has risen as high as third, trailing frontrunner Trump’s 32 percent share and Ted Cruz’s 18 percent at 13. Bush had not placed higher than sixth in previous South Carolina polling. Utah’s poll, meanwhile, shows a full 18 percent of voters undecided, that answer good for third behind Cruz’s 18 percent and Trump’s 17 and just edging Rubio and Carson at 15, meaning that the uncertainty in the GOP race could last beyond the first few primaries.

After a sustained Trump rise, the PredictWise betting aggregation show him holding steady at, 37 percent, down from 39 percent from Sunday. Rubio, who had dipped 4 percent in two days, rises slightly to 32 percent. Cruz holds third with 19 percent, with Bush holding 9 percent and Christie 3.

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