New Hampshire
Marco Rubio, here arguing with Chris Christie at the Fox Business debate, slipped in the latest New Hampshire poll. (Getty)
American Research Group released a poll Tuesday showing Trump with 27 percent, his lowest totals in months. Another surprise: the poll’s runner-up. Ohio governor John Kasich trails by just 7 points at 20 percent, with Marco Rubio at 10 and everyone else in single digits. These are troubling numbers for Rubio, who finishes third to Kasich for the second consecutive poll.
This new poll shifts the RealClearPolitics averages significantly. While Trump continues to lead with a 31 percent of the vote, Kasich now nudges Rubio into third, 13.3 to 11.5, with Kasich third at 11.2, Cruz at 11.3 and Chris Christie tied with Bush at 8.3. Huffpost Pollster, which did not include a poll by NH1/Reach, has Trump with 29.1 percent to Rubio’s 14.2 percent, with Cruz at 11.9, Christie at 11.3, Kasich at 10.5, and Bush at 7.8.
New Hampshire Polling Averages (by RealClearPolitics)
FiveThirtyEight’s polls-plus forecast gives Trump a 39 percent chance to win New Hampshire, with Rubio at 21 percent, Cruz at 13, and Kasich at 11. Significantly, Trump still has a solid projection even after FiveThirtyEight controls 20 percent for his assumed loss in Iowa. Their polls-only forecast bumps Trump to 56 percent, with Rubio at 12 and the rest of the field in single digits.
FiveThirtyEight Model
In the PredictWise betting averages, Trump rises from 61 to 62 percent, marking a 16-percent half-month surge from opening the year at 46 percent. Rubio holds at 14 percent, with Ted Cruz at 10 and everyone else in single digits.
The Rest of the Country
The GOP field at the most recent debates. (Getty)
Tuesday’s NBC News/SurveyMonkey poll shows Trump leading at 38 percent, Ted Cruz at 21 percent, Marco Rubio at 11 percent and Ben Carson at 8 percent . Remember, though, that national polls feature voters who won’t formally make their selection for some time, at which point their current choice may not still be in the race. National polls are usually seen as non-predictive for this reason.
The RealClearPolitics polling averages have not yet updated to include this poll, and still give Trump a 15.2-point lead at 34.5 percent, with Cruz taking 19.3 percent, Rubio at 11.8 and Ben Carson at 9.
National Polling Averages (According to RealClearPolitics)
Although the same disclaimer applies to state polls for still-distant primaries as national polls, Monday’s South Carolina and Utah polls, as well as Tuesday’s Florida and Georgia polls offer some interesting insights.
In the South Carolina and Florida polls, Jeb Bush has risen as high as third, trailing frontrunner Trump’s 32 percent share and Ted Cruz’s 18 percent at 13. Bush had not placed higher than sixth in previous South Carolina polling. Utah’s poll, meanwhile, shows a full 18 percent of voters undecided, that answer good for third behind Cruz’s 18 percent and Trump’s 17 and just edging Rubio and Carson at 15, meaning that the uncertainty in the GOP race could last beyond the first few primaries. In Georgia, meanwhile, Cruz has gained 7 percent as Trump fell 10 from the most recent poll; the momentum that put Cruz at the top of Iowa last month may carry over into later primaries.
After a sustained Trump rise, the PredictWise betting aggregation show him holding steady at 37 percent, down from 39 percent from Sunday. Rubio drops one point to 31 percent, Cruz holds third with 19 percent, with Bush taking 10 percent and Christie 3.
News of the Day
GOP Primary & Debate Schedule
Debate Schedule
Iowa: January 28, Fox News
New Hampshire: February 6, ABC News
South Carolina: February 13, CBS
Texas: February 26, CNN
Location TBD: March 2016, Fox News
Florida: Date TBD, CNN/Salem Radio
Primary Schedule
Iowa: February 1
New Hampshire: February 9
South Carolina: February 20
Nevada: February 23
Super Tuesday (Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Dakota, Oklahoma,
Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, Wyoming): March 1
Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine: March 5
Puerto Rico: March 6
Hawaii, Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi: March 8
Guam, Washington, D.C.: March 12
Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, Northern Mariana Islands, Ohio: March 15
Virgin Islands: March 19
American Samoa, Arizona, Utah: March 22
Wisconsin: April 5
Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island: April 26
Indiana: May 3
Nebraska, West Virginia: May 10
Oregon: May 17
Washington: May 24
California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, South Dakota: June 7