GOP Polls for Jan. 31: State of the Race in Iowa & New Hampshire

Donald Trump campaigns in Iowa, where the latest Des Moines Register poll gives him the lead. (Getty)

The Iowa caucus kicks off the primary race tomorrow, and recent polls suggest it’s going to be a close one. Donald Trump retook the lead from Ted Cruz in the latest Des Moines Register poll, widely regarded as the most reliable, but a closer look at the data suggests it may be closer than the first take suggests. Trump’s national lead and his big margins in New Hampshire, meanwhile, seem a lot more secure. Trump also holds the national betting lead, as aggregated by PredictWise.

Here’s a look at the state of the race:

Iowa

Ted Cruz campaigning in Iowa, where he’s playing catch-up in the latest polls. (Getty)

The new Des Moines Register poll shows Trump with a 5-point lead, 28 to 23 for Ted Cruz, with Rubio at 15 and Carson at 10. While the Des Moines Register poll has been called “the best in the business” by some of the nation’s best forecasters, a deeper dive into the data could spell trouble for Trump: only 7 percent of voters called him their second choice. Given that Iowa rules dictate that a siginificant portion of Iowa voters will need a second choice, the numbers could work against Trump. (Cruz and Rubio, meanwhile, take 17 and 20 percent of the second-choice vote, respectively.)

The RealClearPolitics averages show Trump with a 6.3-point lead over Cruz at 30.8 to 24.5 percent, with Rubio running third at 14.5 percent.

Iowa Polling Averages (by RealClearPolitics)

FiveThirtyEight, which takes more than polls into account for its “polls-plus” forecast, is for the first time favoring Trump, giving him a 48 percent chance of taking Iowa, with Cruz at 41 and Rubio at 10. The polls-only forecast, which weights polls based on methodology and past accuracy, favors Trump with a 59 percent chance, compared to 32 for Cruz and single digits for everyone else.

FiveThirtyEight Polls-Plus Model

Trump rose in the as aggregated by Predictwise, 62 to 67 percent, but Cruz has collapsed from an early January 79 percent to 27, with no one else in double digits.

Click the “next page” button below for New Hampshire and national polling roundup, as well as a discussion of today’s news.

New Hampshire

Marco Rubio is struggling to hold onto third place in the Republican race. (Getty)

A new poll by Suffolk University shows a 15-point lead for Trump, 33 percent to 14 for Cruz and John Kasich. Another by Emerson College Polling Society put Jeb Bush at second with 18 percent, still 17 points behind Trump. According to RealClearPolitics polling averages, Trump has an 18.8-point lead with 31.3 percent of the vote, followed by Kasich at 12.5, Cruz at 12, Rubio at 10.7, and Bush at 10.

New Hampshire Polling Averages (by RealClearPolitics)

FiveThirtyEight’s polls-plus forecast gives Trump a 65 percent chance to win New Hampshire, with Cruz at 15 percent, Rubio at 11 and Kasich at 10. Since FiveThirtyEight controls 20 percent for previous primary results, Trump’s good news in the previous state can only help. Their polls-only forecast bumps Trump to 67 percent, with no one else in double digits.

FiveThirtyEight Polls-Plus Forecast

In the PredictWise betting averages, Trump holds fairly steady at 73 percent, with everyone else in single digits.

The Rest of the Country

The New York Times endorsed John Kasich for the Republican nomination. (Getty)

A new national poll from Investors Business Daily gives Trump a 10-point lead over Ted Cruz at 31-21 percent, with Rubio at 10. It’s the smallest Trump lead of any poll in the RealClearPolitics polling average, which shows Trump with a 15.6-point lead at 35.3 percent, with Cruz taking 19.7 percent and Rubio at 10.7.

National Polling Averages (According to RealClearPolitics)

The PredictWise betting aggregation shows Trump rising to a new high of 52 percent, with former frontrunner Rubio at 31 percent.

News of the Day

GOP Primary & Debate Schedule

Debate Schedule

New Hampshire: February 6, ABC News

South Carolina: February 13, CBS

Texas: February 26, CNN

Location TBD: March 2016, Fox News

Florida: Date TBD, CNN/Salem Radio

Primary Schedule
Iowa: February 1

New Hampshire: February 9

South Carolina: February 20

Nevada: February 23

Super Tuesday (Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Dakota, Oklahoma,
Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, Wyoming): March 1

Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine: March 5

Puerto Rico: March 6

Hawaii, Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi: March 8

Guam, Washington, D.C.: March 12

Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, Northern Mariana Islands, Ohio: March 15

Virgin Islands: March 19

American Samoa, Arizona, Utah: March 22

Wisconsin: April 5

Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island: April 26

Indiana: May 3

Nebraska, West Virginia: May 10

Oregon: May 17

Washington: May 24

California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, South Dakota: June 7

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