New Hampshire
John Kasich pulled 20 percent in one poll last week but hasn’t repeated that success. (Getty)
Recent polls by CBS News/YouGov and Fox News both show substantial leads for Trump, with a crowded runner-up field behind him. With CBS News/YouGov, Trump sits at 34 percent, an 18-point lead over Cruz’s 16 percent, with 14 percent for Rubio and 10 for Ohio governor John Kasich. Fox News has Trump at 31 percent, a 17-point lead over the 14 percent share for Cruz, with Rubio at 13 and Kasich at 9. Either way, the 20-point, runner-up-by-7 showing for Kasich in the American Research Group is looking more and more like an outlier.
According to RealClearPolitics polling averages, Trump has a 18.6-point lead with 32 percent of the vote, with Kasich at 13.4, Cruz third at 11.4, and Rubio at 10.
New Hampshire Polling Averages (by RealClearPolitics)
According to RealClearPolitics polling history, favorites are 1-for-2 in the past two Republican New Hampshire primaries. 15 days before the 2008 New Hampshire primary, eventual New Hampshire winner and nominee was 5.4 points behind then-frontrunner Mitt Romney, 30.4 to 25; McCain came away with a 5.5 point margin of victory, 37-31.5. However, in a 2012 race that more closely resembles Trump’s 19.6-point lead, Mitt Romney’s 17-point polling lead turned into a 16.4-point victory, with New Gingrich finishing fifth after nosing ahead in the polling runner-up. It’s important to note that 15 days before New Hampshire in previous years meant two weeks after Iowa, so the polling samples in 2008 and 2012 are dealing with important information this year’s sample does not have.
FiveThirtyEight’s polls-plus forecast gives Trump a 46 percent chance to win New Hampshire, with Rubio at 14 percent, Kasich at 13, and Cruz at 12. Since FiveThirtyEight controls 20 percent for previous primary results, Trump’s good news in the previous state can only help. Their polls-only forecast bumps Trump to 62 percent, with no one else in double digits.
FiveThirtyEight Polls-Plus Forecast
In the PredictWise betting averages, Trump climbs to 74 percent,with everyone else in single digits.
The Rest of the Country
Iowa Senator Joni Ernst, here hosting her annual Roast and Ride event, is campaigning with Marco Rubio but remains officially neutral. (Getty)
Saturday’s national poll from Fox News shows Trump with a 14-point lead over Cruz, 34 percent to 20 percent, with Marco Rubio taking 11. Reuters/Ipsos was even more favorable, giving Trump 40.6 percent of the vote, a 30.1-point lead over Cruz’s 10.5 percent, with Carson at 9.7, Jeb Bush at 9.2 and Marco Rubio at 7.2.
The RealClearPolitics polling averages did not include the Reuters/Ipsos poll, but the Fox News poll shifts the averages to give Trump a 15.8-point lead at 34.6 percent, with Cruz taking 18.8 percent and Rubio at 11.6.
National Polling Averages (According to RealClearPolitics)
A little polling history: with six days to go before the 2008 and 2012 Iowa caucuses, neither evential nominee was leading national polling, with McCain in third place, 6 points behind leader Rudy Giuliani, and Romney in second, 2.8 points behind Gingrich. However, neither Giuliani nor Gingrich were leading either of the first two state’s polls; Trump leads in both states.
The PredictWise betting aggregation shows Trump at a new high of 47 percent, with former frontrunner Rubio at 30 percent and Jeb Bush tied with Cruz at 10 percent.
News of the Day
GOP Primary & Debate Schedule
Debate Schedule
Iowa: January 28, Fox News
New Hampshire: February 6, ABC News
South Carolina: February 13, CBS
Texas: February 26, CNN
Location TBD: March 2016, Fox News
Florida: Date TBD, CNN/Salem Radio
Primary Schedule
Iowa: February 1
New Hampshire: February 9
South Carolina: February 20
Nevada: February 23
Super Tuesday (Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Dakota, Oklahoma,
Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, Wyoming): March 1
Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine: March 5
Puerto Rico: March 6
Hawaii, Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi: March 8
Guam, Washington, D.C.: March 12
Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, Northern Mariana Islands, Ohio: March 15
Virgin Islands: March 19
American Samoa, Arizona, Utah: March 22
Wisconsin: April 5
Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island: April 26
Indiana: May 3
Nebraska, West Virginia: May 10
Oregon: May 17
Washington: May 24
California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, South Dakota: June 7
