GOP Polls for Jan. 26: State of the Race in Iowa & New Hampshire

Ted Cruz campaigns in Iowa, where he’s second in the polls. (Getty)

With only five days until the Iowa caucus, the race is about to hit high gear. New polls by ABC/Washington Post and CNN/Opinion Research Group show a commanding national lead for Donald Trump, but polling in Iowa is a little more competitive, with the latest Quinnipiac poll showing just a 2-point difference between Trump and main challenger Ted Cruz. Marco Rubio, once the betting favorite nationally and the longtime New Hampshire polling runner-up, picked up a major endorsement and a major “non-endorsement” in Iowa but hasn’t moved up in the state’s polls, and continues his slump in New Hampshire polls, including the latest. Trump retains the New Hampshire lead, and also holds the national betting lead, as aggregated by PredictWise.

Here’s a look at the state of the race:

Iowa

Donald Trump campaigns in Iowa, where he’s taken the polling lead. (Getty)

A new poll by Quinnipiac gives Trump just a 2-point lead over Cruz, 31 percent to 29 percent, with Rubio far behind at 13. Trump also has a slight edge in supporters whose minds could be changed, with only 29 percent to Cruz’s 30. However, 39 percent of the field as a whole says their minds could be changed, meaning a totally different result from the polling is still on the table.

The RealClearPolitics averages show Trump with a 2.6-point lead over Cruz at 33.2 to 27.5 percent, with Rubio running third at 12 percent.

Iowa Polling Averages (by RealClearPolitics)

The polling history from RealClearPolitics shows an encouraging result for Trump. Six days before the caucus in 2008, Mike Huckabee led Mitt Romney by the same 5.7-point margin (33 to 27.3 percent) Trump holds over Cruz; Huckabee took 34 percent and the victory, while eventual nominee John McCain finished fourth. However, in 2012, eventual Iowa winner Rick Santorum was polling sixth at just 9.8 percent, with Ron Paul in the lead at 22.5 percent; Santorum won with a 24.6 percent share, while eventual nominee Romney finished second with 24.6, roughly in line with polling predictions.

Despite these polling results, FiveThirtyEight, which takes more than polls into account for its “polls-plus” forecast, actually increased Cruz to a 49 percent chance of taking Iowa, from a previous hold at 48. Trump also rose, 36 percent to 42, with no other candidate in double digits. The polls-only forecast, which weights polls based on methodology and past accuracy, favors Trump with a 55 percent chance, compared to 38 for Cruz and single digits for everyone else.

FiveThirtyEight Polls-Plus Model

Trump also falls in the betting markets as aggregated by Predictwise, 66 to 61 percent. Cruz rises to 36 percent, with no one else in double digits.

Click the “next page” button below for New Hampshire and national polling roundup, as well as a discussion of today’s news.

New Hampshire

Marco Rubio, once the clear New Hampshire polling runner-up, slips to fourth in the latest poll. (Getty)

A new poll by Franklin Pierce University and the Boston Herald shows a 19-point lead for Trump, 33 percent to 14 for Cruz, with Kasich at 12. It’s all bad news for Rubio, who not only falls to fourth with 8 percent but also sees his favorability fall 9 points; favorability is usually a marker for polling momentum.

According to RealClearPolitics polling averages, Trump has a 19.5-point lead with 32.3 percent of the vote, followed by Cruz at 12.8, Kasich at 12, and Rubio at 10.7.

New Hampshire Polling Averages (by RealClearPolitics)

According to RealClearPolitics polling history, favorites are 1-for-2 in the past two Republican New Hampshire primaries. 15 days before the 2008 New Hampshire primary, eventual New Hampshire winner and nominee John McCain was 3.5 points behind then-frontrunner Mitt Romney, 29.8 to 26.3; McCain came away with a 5.5-point margin of victory, 37-31.5. However, in a 2012 race that more closely resembles Trump’s 19.6-point lead, Mitt Romney’s 17-point polling lead turned into a 16.4-point victory, with New Gingrich finishing fifth after nosing ahead in the polling runner-up contest. It’s important to note that this point before New Hampshire in previous years was well after, not still before, the Iowa caucus, so the polling samples in 2008 and 2012 are dealing with important information this year’s sample does not have.

FiveThirtyEight’s polls-plus forecast gives Trump a 53 percent chance to win New Hampshire, with Cruz at 17 percent and Rubio at 11. Since FiveThirtyEight controls 20 percent for previous primary results, Trump’s good news in the previous state can only help. Their polls-only forecast bumps Trump to 66 percent, with only Cruz otherwise in double digits at 11.

FiveThirtyEight Polls-Plus Forecast

In the PredictWise betting averages, Trump drops slightly 71 percent, but everyone else remains in single digits.

The Rest of the Country

Nebraska Republican Senator Ben Sasse lashed out at Donald Trump on Twitter Monday. (Getty)

New national polls from ABC/Washington Post and CNN/ORC show Trump with commanding leads: 16 in the former, 22 in the latter. These nee numbers shift the RealClearPolitics polling averages to give Trump a 16.9-point lead at 36.2 percent, with Cruz taking 19.3 percent and Rubio at 11.

National Polling Averages (According to RealClearPolitics)

A little polling history: with six days to go before the 2008 and 2012 Iowa caucuses, neither eventual nominee was leading national polling, with McCain in third place, 6 points behind leader Rudy Giuliani, and Romney in second, 2.6 points behind Gingrich. However, neither Giuliani nor Gingrich were leading either of the first two state’s polls; Trump leads in both states.

The PredictWise betting aggregation shows Trump maintaining his high of 47 percent, with former frontrunner Rubio at 30 percent, Cruz at 11, and Jeb Bush at 10 percent.

News of the Day

GOP Primary & Debate Schedule

Debate Schedule

Iowa: January 28, Fox News

New Hampshire: February 6, ABC News

South Carolina: February 13, CBS

Texas: February 26, CNN

Location TBD: March 2016, Fox News

Florida: Date TBD, CNN/Salem Radio

Primary Schedule
Iowa: February 1

New Hampshire: February 9

South Carolina: February 20

Nevada: February 23

Super Tuesday (Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Dakota, Oklahoma,
Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, Wyoming): March 1

Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine: March 5

Puerto Rico: March 6

Hawaii, Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi: March 8

Guam, Washington, D.C.: March 12

Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, Northern Mariana Islands, Ohio: March 15

Virgin Islands: March 19

American Samoa, Arizona, Utah: March 22

Wisconsin: April 5

Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island: April 26

Indiana: May 3

Nebraska, West Virginia: May 10

Oregon: May 17

Washington: May 24

California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, South Dakota: June 7

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