Democratic Polls for Feb. 9: State of the Race in New Hampshire & Nevada

Bernie Sanders campaigns in New Hampshire, where he holds a significant polling lead. (Getty)

The New Hampshire primary is upon us, and with it a chance to radically alter the race. Iowa winner Hillary Clinton trails Bernie Sanders by a substantial margin in New Hampshire. Moving on to South Carolina and Nevada, though, the advantage returns to Hillary, as does the national lead.

Delegate Count (2,382 Needed for Nomination)

Here’s a look at the state of the race:

New Hampshire

Hillary Clinton campaigns in New Hampshire, where she trails significantly on primary election day. (Getty)

Polls continue to consistently show a Sanders lead but differ on the size of that lead. The UMass-Lowell tracking poll shows a 16-point lead for Sanders, 55 percent percent to 40 percent, a stabilizing lead for Sanders after a significant drop post-Iowa. Emerson is less favorable to Sanders, with a 12-point lead at 54-42. CNN/WMUR, however, reports a Sanders advantage of 26 points, 61 percent to 35 percent.

Sanders leads in the RealClearPolitics aggregation of recent polls by 13.2 points, with 53.9 percent to Clinton’s 40.7.

New Hampshire Polling Averages (by RealClearPolitics)

• Bernie Sanders: 53.9%
• Hillary Clinton: 40.7%

FiveThirtyEight, which utilizes factors beyond polls in its “polls-plus” predictions, is now practically guaranteeing Sanders’s chances at a greater than 99 percent chance. It’s important to note, though, that this is based on available information, which could still change in the four days until polling opens. Its polls-only forecast, which doesn’t use extra factors but weights the polls according to methodology and past accuracy, puts Sanders all the way at 98 percent.

FiveThirtyEight Polls-Plus Forecast for New Hampshire

Click the “next page” button below for New Hampshire and national polling roundup, as well as a discussion of today’s news.

Nevada

Former President Bill Clinton decried “profane” and “sexist” attacks on Hillary by online Sanders supporters. (Getty)

The most recent Nevada poll was released by Gravis on December 28. In that poll, Clinton led Sanders by 23 points, 50 to 27. While that’s obviously too far out to measure everything accurately, it is interesting to note that the most recent previous poll, an October release from CNN/ORC, showed more competitive numbers (a 16-point lead at 50-34), possibly hinting that Bernie’s surge in Iowa and New Hampshire did not signal a rise in the states beyond.

The two polls combine for a RealClearPolitics average showing a Clinton lead of 19.5 at 50 percent, with Bernie Sanders at 30.5 percent.

Nevada Polling Averages (by RealClearPolitics)

FiveThirtyEight doesn’t have enough recent polling for a forecast, but tracks recent polling to show a 50.3 percent chance for Clinton, with Sanders at 28.1 percent.

The Rest of the Country

Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg confirmed interest in a third-party run for President. (Getty)

A recent national poll from Quinnipiac shows just a 2-point lead for Clinton, 44 percent to 42 percent. This poll is a significant outlier, as all other recent polls show double-digit leads for Clinton, but it may capture a snapshot of the Sanders momentum after a close loss in Iowa and headed toward what looks like a big New Hampshire win. The RealClearPolitics averages update to include the latest poll shows Clinton’s lead at 13.3 points at 50.5 percent, with Sanders taking 37.2 percent.

National Polling Averages (by RealClearPolitics)

• Hillary Clinton: 49.3%
• Bernie Sanders: 36%

The betting markets aggregated by PredictWise show Clinton at an 82 percent favorite to win the Democratic nomination, with Sanders at 18.

News of the Day

Democratic Primary & Debate Schedule

Debate Schedule

New Hampshire: February 4, MSNBC

Wisconsin: February 11, PBS

Florida: March 9, Univision

Primary Schedule

New Hampshire: February 9

Nevada: February 20

South Carolina: February 27

Super Tuesday (Alabama, American Samoa, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oklahoma,
Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia): March 1

Kansas, Louisiana: March 5

Maine: March 6

Michigan, Mississippi, Democrats Abroad: March 8

Northern Mariana Islands: March 12

Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio: March 15

Arizona, Idaho, Utah: March 22

Alaska, Hawaii, Washington: March 26

Wisconsin: April 5

Wyoming: April 9

New York: April 19

Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island: April 26

Indiana: May 3

West Virginia: May 10

Kentucky, Oregon: May 17

California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Dakota, South Dakota: June 7

Washington, D.C.: June 14

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GOP Polls for Feb. 9: State of the Race in New Hampshire & South Carolina