Democratic Polls for Feb. 4: State of the Race in New Hampshire & Nevada

Hillary Clinton speaks at a CNN town hall in New Hampshire on Wednesday. (Getty)

Monday night’s Iowa caucus is behind us, and the focus turns to January 9’s New Hampshire primary. While Hillary Clinton managed to hold off Bernie Sanders in Iowa, Sanders has maintained a substantial lead in New Hampshire ahead of Thursday’s debate. Moving on to South Carolina and Nevada, though, the advantage returns to Hillary, as does the national lead.

Delegate Count (2,382 Needed for Nomination)

Here’s a look at the state of the race:

New Hampshire

Bernie Sanders, here at a town hall event in New Hampshire, leads that state’s polling by a wide margin. (Getty)

The UMass-Lowell tracking poll shows a 22-point lead for Sanders, 58 percent to 36 percent. Clinton has gained 4 points and narrowed the gap by 7; Bernie has lost only 3 points, though, meaning that part of her increase is likely due to O’Malley being dropped from the poll. Sanders leads in the RealClearPolitics aggregation of recent polls by 15.8 points, with 54.6 percent to Clinton’s 38.8, with O’Malley still holding 2.3 percent due to the lack of recent polling.

New Hampshire Polling Averages (by RealClearPolitics)

• Bernie Sanders: 54.6%
• Hillary Clinton: 38.8%

FiveThirtyEight, which utilizes factors beyond polls in its “polls-plus” predictions, holds Sanders’s chances in the state at 96 percent, with Hillary at 4. Its polls-only forecast, which doesn’t use extra factors but weights the polls according to methodology and past accuracy, puts Sanders all the way at 98 percent.

FiveThirtyEight Polls-Plus Forecast for New Hampshire

Click the “next page” button below for New Hampshire and national polling roundup, as well as a discussion of today’s news.

Nevada

Nevada Senator Harry Reid came to the defense of a Clinton staffer during a Twitter argument Wednesday. (Getty)

The most recent Nevada poll was released by Gravis on December 28. In that poll, Clinton led Sanders by 23 points, 50 to 27. While that’s obviously too far out to measure everything accurately, it is interesting to note that the most recent previous poll, an October release from CNN/ORC, showed more competitive numbers (a 16-point lead at 50-34), possibly hinting that Bernie’s surge in Iowa and New Hampshire did not signal a rise in the states beyond.

The two polls combine for a RealClearPolitics average showing a Clinton lead of 19.5 at 50 percent, with Bernie Sanders at 30.5 percent.

Nevada Polling Averages (by RealClearPolitics)

FiveThirtyEight doesn’t have enough recent polling for a forecast, but tracks recent polling to show a 50.4 percent chance for Clinton, with Sanders at 28.5 percent.

The Rest of the Country

Former NAACP president Ben Jealous endorsed Bernie Sanders on Wednesday. (Getty)

A new national poll from Public Policy Polling shows a 21-point lead for Clinton, 53 percent to 32 percent. This is higher than other recent national polls, but like the others, it shows a double-digit lead for Clinton. The RealClearPolitics averages update to include the latest poll shows Clinton’s lead at 15.5 points at 51.8 percent, with Sanders taking 36.3 percent.

National Polling Averages (by RealClearPolitics)

• Hillary Clinton: 51.8%
• Bernie Sanders: 36.3%

The betting markets aggregated by PredictWise show Clinton at an 83 percent favorite to win the Democratic nomination, with Sanders at 17.

News of the Day

Democratic Primary & Debate Schedule

Debate Schedule

New Hampshire: February 4, MSNBC

Wisconsin: February 11, PBS

Florida: March 9, Univision

Primary Schedule

New Hampshire: February 9

Nevada: February 20

South Carolina: February 27

Super Tuesday (Alabama, American Samoa, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oklahoma,
Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia): March 1

Kansas, Louisiana: March 5

Maine: March 6

Michigan, Mississippi, Democrats Abroad: March 8

Northern Mariana Islands: March 12

Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio: March 15

Arizona, Idaho, Utah: March 22

Alaska, Hawaii, Washington: March 26

Wisconsin: April 5

Wyoming: April 9

New York: April 19

Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island: April 26

Indiana: May 3

West Virginia: May 10

Kentucky, Oregon: May 17

California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Dakota, South Dakota: June 7

Washington, D.C.: June 14

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GOP Polls for Feb. 4: State of the Race in New Hampshire & South Carolina