GOP Polls for Feb. 13: State of the Race in South Carolina & Nevada

Donald Trump polls, Donald Trump Nevada, Donald Trump South Carolina

Donald Trump, here at a campaign event in Florida, leads the national polls and ones in Nevada and South Carolina. (Getty)

After Donald Trump took New Hampshire in convincing fashion on Tuesday, the Republican race turns to South Carolina’s “First in the South” primary February 20. South Carolina polls favor Trump, according to RealClearPolitics, as do those in the next state, Nevada. The prediction markets have also swung in Trump’s favor.

Delegate Count

Donald Trump 17
Ted Cruz 11
Marco Rubio 10
John Kasich 5
Jeb Bush 4
Ben Carson 3

Here’s a look at the state of the race:


South Carolina: Trump Well Ahead

Marco Rubio polls, Marco Rubio Nevada, Marco Rubio South Carolina

Marco Rubio is struggling to recover from a disappointing New Hampshire finish. (Getty)

The Polls

Two new polls from South Carolina shows a convincing lead for Trump, with Cruz, Rubio and Bush consistently pulling double digits behind him.

Augusta Chronicle Released February 12
Donald Trump 36%
Ted Cruz 20%
Marco Rubio 15%
Jeb Bush 11%

 

SC House GOP Caucus Released February 12
Donald Trump 35%
Ted Cruz 16%
Marco Rubio 13%
Jeb Bush 13%

The figures aren’t much different from polls earlier in the cycle:

NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Released January 24
Donald Trump 36%
Ted Cruz 20%
Marco Rubio 14%
Jeb Bush 9%

RealClearPolitics consolidated these polls into an average for all candidates:

RealClearPolitics Averages
Donald Trump 35.7%
Ted Cruz 18.7%
Marco Rubio 14%
Jeb Bush 11%

After a strong finish in Iowa and a big New Hampshire win, it’s clear that Trump is maintaining momentum.


The Forecasts

FiveThirtyEight’s polls-plus projections uses external factors like endorsements, the impact of previous state primaries, and national polling trends to give context to state polling numbers. Their forecast for South Carolina significantly favors Trump:

Donald Trump 64%
Marco Rubio 15%
Ted Cruz 11%

Their polls-only forecast, which weights polls according to methodological rigor and past accuracy, is even friendlier to Trump:

Donald Trump 77%
Ted Cruz 11%

The Betting Markets

Presidential betting markets, which react more quickly than polling organizations or forecasts derived from them, offer key insight into the day-to-day movement of the race. PredictWise aggregates various betting markets into a summary of the betting action, which at this point is highly favorable to Trump, with only Cruz competitive otherwise:

Donald Trump 78%
Ted Cruz 14%

Click the “next page” button below for Nevada and national polling roundup, as well as a discussion of today’s news.

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