GOP Polls for Feb. 13: State of the Race in South Carolina & Nevada

Donald Trump polls, Donald Trump Nevada, Donald Trump South Carolina

Donald Trump, here at a campaign event in Florida, leads the national polls and ones in Nevada and South Carolina. (Getty)

After Donald Trump took New Hampshire in convincing fashion on Tuesday, the Republican race turns to South Carolina’s “First in the South” primary February 20. South Carolina polls favor Trump, according to RealClearPolitics, as do those in the next state, Nevada. The prediction markets have also swung in Trump’s favor.

Delegate Count

Donald Trump 17
Ted Cruz 11
Marco Rubio 10
John Kasich 5
Jeb Bush 4
Ben Carson 3

Here’s a look at the state of the race:


South Carolina: Trump Well Ahead

Marco Rubio polls, Marco Rubio Nevada, Marco Rubio South Carolina

Marco Rubio is struggling to recover from a disappointing New Hampshire finish. (Getty)

The Polls

Two new polls from South Carolina shows a convincing lead for Trump, with Cruz, Rubio and Bush consistently pulling double digits behind him.

Augusta Chronicle Released February 12
Donald Trump 36%
Ted Cruz 20%
Marco Rubio 15%
Jeb Bush 11%

 

SC House GOP Caucus Released February 12
Donald Trump 35%
Ted Cruz 16%
Marco Rubio 13%
Jeb Bush 13%

The figures aren’t much different from polls earlier in the cycle:

NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Released January 24
Donald Trump 36%
Ted Cruz 20%
Marco Rubio 14%
Jeb Bush 9%

RealClearPolitics consolidated these polls into an average for all candidates:

RealClearPolitics Averages
Donald Trump 35.7%
Ted Cruz 18.7%
Marco Rubio 14%
Jeb Bush 11%

After a strong finish in Iowa and a big New Hampshire win, it’s clear that Trump is maintaining momentum.


The Forecasts

FiveThirtyEight’s polls-plus projections uses external factors like endorsements, the impact of previous state primaries, and national polling trends to give context to state polling numbers. Their forecast for South Carolina significantly favors Trump:

Donald Trump 64%
Marco Rubio 15%
Ted Cruz 11%

Their polls-only forecast, which weights polls according to methodological rigor and past accuracy, is even friendlier to Trump:

Donald Trump 77%
Ted Cruz 11%

The Betting Markets

Presidential betting markets, which react more quickly than polling organizations or forecasts derived from them, offer key insight into the day-to-day movement of the race. PredictWise aggregates various betting markets into a summary of the betting action, which at this point is highly favorable to Trump, with only Cruz competitive otherwise:

Donald Trump 78%
Ted Cruz 14%

Click the “next page” button below for Nevada and national polling roundup, as well as a discussion of today’s news.

Nevada: Few Polls, but a Trump Advantage

Ted Cruz polls, Ted Cruz South Carolina, Ted Cruz Nevada

Ted Cruz is Trump’s nearest competitor nationally, in Nevada, and in South Carolina. (Getty)


The Polls

The most recent poll for Nevada was released December 28, meaning that the numbers are even more out of date than those for South Carolina. The nearest polling data we have suggests a sizeable Trump lead:

Gravis Released January 28
Donald Trump 33%
Ted Cruz 20%
Marco Rubio 11%

 

CNN/ORC Released October 14
Donald Trump 38%
Ben Carson 22%
Marco Rubio 7%

RealClearPolitics has not released an average for the Nevada polls owing to this lack of recency.


The Forecasts

FiveThirtyEight has not given a polls-plus projection for Nevada, owing to a lack of recent polling data. Their polls-only forecast for Nevada favors Trump:


The Betting Markets

Presidential betting markets, which react more quickly than polling organizations or forecasts derived from them, offer key insight into the day-to-day movement of the race. PredictWise aggregates various betting markets into a summary of the betting action, which at this point is highly favorable to Trump, Cruz and Rubio competitive:

Donald Trump 61%
Ted Cruz 24%
Marco Rubio 11%

The Rest of the Country: Trump Leads, but Rivals Closer

Long-shot Republican candidate Jim Gilmore ended his campaign on Saturday.

Long-shot Republican candidate Jim Gilmore ended his campaign on Saturday. (Getty)

The Polls

In contrast to South Carolina and Nevada, there are new polls for the nation as a whole, and several of them show Trump’s rivals cutting into his lead. However, even the three newest polls are from the beginning of February, before Trump’s big win in New Hampshire and disappointing results from some strong Iowa finishers:

Rasmussen Released February 8
Donald Trump 31%
Marco Rubio 21%
Ted Cruz 20%

 

Quinnipiac Released February 5
Donald Trump 31%
Ted Cruz 22%
Marco Rubio 19%

 

Public Policy Polling Released February 4
Donald Trump 25%
Ted Cruz 21%
Marco Rubio 21%

RealClearPolitics aggregated these polls into a rolling average:

RealClearPolitics Averages
Donald Trump 29.5%
Ted Cruz 21%
Marco Rubio 17.8%

The Betting Markets

The PredictWise aggregated betting market data shows a sharp rise for Trump and a sharp fall for Rubio after a big win and a disappointing finish in New Hampshire, respectively. Meanwhile, John Kasich’s odds rise sharply but remain fairly remote following his surprise finish in New Hampshire:

Betting Market Data
Donald Trump 44%
Marco Rubio 23%
Ted Cruz 18%
John Kasich 12%

News of the Day

  • Long-shot candidate Jim Gilmore ended his campaign Friday. Gilmore had not qualified for a main-stage debate and was not on the ballot in several states.

GOP Primary & Debate Schedule

Debate Schedule

South Carolina: February 13, CBS

Texas: February 26, CNN

Location TBD: March 2016, Fox News

Florida: Date TBD, CNN/Salem Radio

Primary Schedule

South Carolina: February 20

Nevada: February 23

Super Tuesday (Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Dakota, Oklahoma,
Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, Wyoming): March 1

Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine: March 5

Puerto Rico: March 6

Hawaii, Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi: March 8

Guam, Washington, D.C.: March 12

Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, Northern Mariana Islands, Ohio: March 15

Virgin Islands: March 19

American Samoa, Arizona, Utah: March 22

Wisconsin: April 5

Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island: April 26

Indiana: May 3

Nebraska, West Virginia: May 10

Oregon: May 17

Washington: May 24

California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, South Dakota: June 7

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