Hillary Clinton lost New Hampshire by a wide margin but looks to rebound well in Nevada. (Getty)
Bernie Sanders won New Hampshire by a large margin, but Hillary Clinton could to rebound well as the race turns to the Nevada caucus on February 20. Clinton leads in Nevada polling by a wide margin, though the most recent polls aren’t up to date. Clinton also holds the lead according to weighted polling averages by FiveThirtyEight and betting markets aggregated by PredictWise.
Here’s a look at the state of the Nevada race:
The Polls
The most recent polls in Nevada are from October and December. CNN/ORC reported a 16-point lead for Clinton in October, 50 percent to 34 percent, with Clinton also taking top marks on every issue polled (the economy, foreign policy, health care, climate change, and race relations). A Gravis poll from December went even further, giving Clinton a 23-point, 50-27 lead, with then-active candidate Martin O’Malley taking 1 percent. The two polls combine for a RealClearPolitics average of 50 to 30.5 percent, a 19.5-point gap in Hillary’s favor.
RealClearPolitics Averages
It’s important to note that more than a month is a long time in polling; polls didn’t show the surge that led Sanders to a virtual dead heat in Iowa until 20 days before the election; the Gravis poll was released 54 days from the Nevada caucus.
The Forecasters
FiveThirtyEight compiles two projections: a “polls-plus” forecast that takes into account factors like national poll impact, endorsements, and previous state results to formulate a more complete picture than the polling snapshot can provide, and a polls-only format that weights and averages the polls according to methodology and past accuracy. The lack of recent polling prevents them from doing a polls-plus forecast, but their polls-only forecast gives Clinton a 22.2-point advantage at 50.3 percent to 28.1 percent for Sanders.
FiveThirtyEight Polls-Only Forecast
The Betting Markets
The betting markets, as aggregated by PredictWise, show that Hillary is favored by Nevada caucus bettors 67 to 33 percent. This is below her 80 percent chances for the overall nomination, which FiveThirtyEight calls a bad indicator in the case of polls, but remains a substantial lead.