Marine Le Pen vs. Emmanuel Macron Polls: Macron Holds Significant Lead

Emmanuel Macron speaks during a debate on April 4, 2017. (Getty)

France is just days away from choosing its next president.

The two candidates in the election are Emmanuel Macron, a centrist who has earned the endorsement of Barack Obama, and Marine Le Pen, a far-right candidate who promises to crack down on illegal immigration and who has drawn comparisons to Donald Trump.

So what do the latest polls look like? In virtually all of the polls conducted since the first round of voting, Emmanuel Macron holds a very significant lead. Now that the race is down to two candidates, it seems that most voters who had backed another candidate in the race have rallied behind Macron and against Le Pen.

Here’s a look at some of the recent polling in the French presidential election.

Harris – Macron 24 Points Ahead

Marine Le Pen delivers a speech during a campaign rally at the Puybonnieux farm in Pageas, near Limoges, on April 13, 2017. (Getty)

In the latest poll from Harris Interactive, Emmanuel Macron is 24 points ahead.

This poll was conducted on May 4th and May 5th by speaking to 2,270 people. In the poll, 62 percent said they planned to vote for Emmanuel Macron, whereas only 38 percent said they planned to vote for Marine Le Pen.

Macron has shot up in the polls since before the first round of voting, in which over 10 candidates were in the race. In a poll conducted by Harris on April 18th and April 19th, 25 percent of respondents said they planned to vote for Macron, while 22 percent said they planned to vote for Le Pen.

Between these two polls, then, Le Pen has gone up 14 points, but Macron has gone up 37 points.

Ifop – Macron 26 Points Ahead

Marine Le Pen delivers a speech on April 19, 2017, in Marseille. (Getty)

In another recent poll conducted by Ifop, Emmanuel Macron is 26 points ahead of Le Pen.

This is in a poll conducted with a sample size of 1,861 from May 2nd through May 5th. In it, Emmanuel Macron captures 63 percent of the vote, whereas Marine Le Pen only gets 37 percent of the vote.

Once again, Macron has gained much more support since before the first round of polling than Le Pen has. In an Ifop poll conducted shortly before the first round of voting, Macron had 24 percent of the vote, and Le Pen had 22.5 percent of the vote.

Between these two polls, Le Pen has gone up 14.5 points, but Macron has gone up 38 points.

Odoxa – Macron 24 Points Ahead

Emmanuel Macron on April 18, 2017 during his visit at the KRYS group’s headquarters in Bazainville, near Paris.
(Getty)

In a recent poll from Odoxo, Macron is 24 points ahead, the same lead that he has in the Harris poll.

This is in a poll conducted with a sample size of 959 on May 4th. In it, Emmanuel Macron has 62 percent of the vote, whereas Marine Le Pen has 38 percent of the vote.

Once again, when we compare this to an Odoxa poll from before the first round of voting, Emmanuel Macron has gained much more support than Marine Le Pen. In an Odoxa poll conducted on April 12th and April 13th, Macron has 24.5 percent of the vote, and Le Pen has 23 percent of it.

Between these two polls, Le Pen has gone up 15 points, while Macron has gone up 37.5 points.

Almost Every Recent Poll Shows Macron Ahead by Over 20 Points

Marine Le Pen speaks during a campaign rally on April 15, 2017 in Perpignan, southwestern France. (Getty)

There has not been a single major poll released in which Marine Le Pen is ahead of Emmanuel Macron, and almost every poll has Macron in the lead by over 20 points.

Since the first round of voting, of every major poll released, the smallest lead Macron has ever had is 18 points. The largest lead he has had is 30 points.

Here’s a look at the lead Macron has held in a variety of polls released in the past few days.

If Le Pen Wins, It Will Be One of The Most Significant Polling Errors Ever

Emmanuel Macron delivers a speech during a campaign rally at Bercy Arena on April 17, 2017 in Paris, France.
(Getty Images)

After the 2016 U.S. presidential election, many are wary of trusting opinion polling. After all, polling last year suggested that Hillary Clinton would defeat Donald Trump on November 8th.

But Emmanuel Macron has a much, much larger lead over Marine Le Pen than Hillary Clinton ever had over Donald Trump. Going into Election Day last year, in national polls, Hillary Clinton had an average lead of 2.1 percentage points, according to Real Clear Politics. Never was there a poll that showed Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 20 points. And nationally, Hillary Clinton did end up beating Donald Trump by 2.1 points.

Most of the major polling errors in the 2016 election occurred on a state-by-state level, but even then, the polls were usually only off by a few points. In the state of Michigan, for example, polls showed Clinton with a lead of 3.6 percentage points, and Trump ended up winning by 0.3 points. The polls, then, were off by less than five points; in order for Le Pen to win, every single poll would have to be wrong by roughly 20 points, which would be a far more significant polling error than occurred during the 2016 general election.

FiveThirtyEight also found that polling in France tends to be fairly accurate. In the last eight presidential elections in France, polls have been off by about 3.9 percentage points, nowhere close to the error required for Le Pen to win on Sunday.