When Beto O’Rourke and Ted Cruz face each other in the Senate, who will win? The latest poll released on September 19 shows Beto slightly in the lead, but a poll released just the day before shows Ted Cruz with a sizeable lead. This can lead to a lot of confusion when it comes to determining who will win, and might ultimately mean that the race won’t be easy for whoever ultimately wins. (After you read this story, take our poll at the very end and let us know if you would vote for Beto O’Rourke or Ted Cruz in a Senate race.)
An Ipsos online poll that was released on Wednesday showed that O’Rourke leads Cruz by two percentage points among likely voters — specifically, 47 percent said they would vote for O’Rourke and 45 percent said they would vote for Cruz. The poll was done in conjunction with Reuters and the University of Virginia. This is the first poll that has actually placed O’Rourke ahead of Cruz, Texas Tribune noted.
The results of this poll might be confusing because just the day before, another poll showed Cruz leading Beto 54 to 45 percent, by a total of nine percentage points. That poll, from Quinnipiac University, was released on Tuesday.
Wednesday’s Poll Showed O’Rourke Leading Cruz for the First Time
The Ipsos poll released Wednesday is the first time that O’Rourke had led Cruz in a poll. The poll was 47 percent for O’Rourke, 45 percent for Cruz, with three percent voting “other” and five percent choosing “none.” The margin of error is 3.5 percentage points, Texas Tribune noted.
The Ipsos poll was among likely voters. The poll also asked the likelihood that the respondents will vote on a scale from one to 10. More Democrats chose the higher part of the scale than Republicans, Ipsos Vice President Chris Jackson told the Texas Tribune. The Ispsos poll was an online survey.
The poll also found that 76 percent of respondents saw Cruz as a “traditional” politician, and 36 percent saw O’Rourke as traditional.
FiveThirtyEight ranks the Ipsos pollster as a B+. The sample size for this poll was 992 likely voters, polled September 6-14.
Tuesday’s Quinnipiac Poll Showed Cruz Leading by 9 Percentage Points
This might all get a bit confusing when you remember that yesterday, Quinnipiac released a poll showing Cruz leading O’Rourke by 9 percentage points, 54 percent to 45 percent. One percent were undecided in that poll. This was also a likely voter survey, Texas Tribune noted, and it was Quinnipiac’s first survey of likely voters.
Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll, said that these numbers might “calm that talk” that Democrats might take over the Senate. The survey also showed that Cruz had a 52 percent favorability rating among likely voters compared to O’Rourke’s 43 percent.
This poll was conducted via phone interviews. The Ipsos poll was conducted online.
FiveThirtyEight ranks the Quinnipiac University pollster as an A-. The sample size for this poll was 807 likely voters, polled September 11-17.
Cruz Has Been Leading in Polls Overall, but O’Rourke Is Close
Overall, Cruz has been leading in the polls, but O’Rourke has been close, Real Clear Politics reported. Here’s a quick look at the results of other recent polls.
- A CBS 11/Dixie Strategies poll for 9/6-9/7 showed Cruz ahead 46 to 42 percent.
- An Emerson poll for 8/22-8/25 showed Cruz leading 39 to 38 percentage points.
- An NBC News/Marist poll for 8/12-8/16 shows Cruz leading 49 to 45 percentage points.
So although Cruz is leading all the polls, it’s by a close margin. Right now, Real Clear Politics is averaging Cruz ahead by 4.5 points, but their ranking the race as a “toss up.”
Now take our poll below and let us know who you will be voting for in the race in November. When we ran the same poll in March, Beto got 75.6 percent of the votes and Cruz got 22 percent. Keep in mind that this poll is not scientific and does not indicate who will actually win.
READ NEXT: Learn more about Beto O’Rourke