Will Hurricane Dorian Hit the Bahamas? See the Latest Track & Models

Hurricane Dorian

National Hurricane Center

Hurricane Dorian is heading toward the Bahamas, expected to arrive in the area over the weekend. According to the latest path projected by the National Hurricane Center, Dorian will be a Category 3 storm as it approaches the islands.

“The risk of life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds this weekend continues to increase in the northwestern Bahamas, and hurricane watches could be issued there tonight or Friday. Residents should have their hurricane plan in place and listen to advice given by local emergency officials,” the National Hurricane Center said in a “Key Message” on Thursday, August 29.

“Regardless of the exact track of Dorian, heavy rains are expected to occur over portions of the Bahamas, Florida, and elsewhere in the southeastern United States this weekend and into the middle of next week,” the NHC added.

Dorian is currently moving northwest at 13 mph and is located 220 miles north of Puerto Rico.

The current path based on the Euro model has Dorian heading toward the Bahamas and making landfall somewhere on Great Abaco. It’s possible, however, for the storm to make landfall on any of the northern Bahamian islands, based on the current “cone of uncertainty.”

Here’s what you need to know:


Most Northern Islands in the Bahamas Will See Heavy Rain & Wind From Dorian & a Direct Hit Is Possible

Hurricane Dorian

As of Thursday afternoon, the National Hurricane Center predicts that Dorian will head over the Bahamian islands as a Category 4 storm. It is possible that the storm will make landfall in the Bahamas. The storm appears to be headed north of Grand Bahama Island, bringing heavy rain and some wind to the area, located on the south side of storm’s center. However, some latest run spaghetti models suggest that Dorian will make landfall on the island.

Tropical-storm-force winds will arrive in the area on Friday night and into Saturday morning. Wind speeds will increase on Saturday and into Sunday. Several inches of rain could fall in the Bahamas, but projected rain totals will not be estimated until the storm’s path is a bit more solidified.

“At the very least, a swath of building seas, rough surf, heavy rain, and gusty winds will spread northwestward along the path of the tropical cyclone,” Accuweather reports.

Below is a map of the latest Euro run.

Below is a map of the latest GFS run.

The worst of the storm should pull out of the Bahamas on Sunday night.


Delays & Cancellations Are Expected When it Comes to Flights & Cruises Headed for the Bahamas

Cruise ship

Any travel to the Bahamas could be subject to delays or cancellations as Dorian approaches. Depending on the storm’s track, flights in and out of Nassau could be delayed or canceled due to the unsteady air mass, wind, and overall unfavorable conditions.

If you are heading out on a cruise this weekend, you may find that your cruise’s itinerary has changed. It’s also possible that cruises headed out on Sunday or Monday will be completely canceled.

Some airlines are allowing passengers to make changes without penalization and other airlines are offering vouchers for canceled flights. It is important to check with your airline if you have plans to travel to any areas that Dorian could impact.

Cruise companies are also making changes in light of this storm. According to USA Today, Royal Caribbean modified the itineraries for three of its ships — Allure of the Seas, Harmony of the Seas, and Symphony of the Seas — to avoid the brunt of the storm. Disney Cruise Lines has also made some itinerary changes.

Norwegian Cruise Lines has not announced any changes or cancellations at this time, but there is a scheduled cruise set to embark from Port Canaveral on Monday afternoon that could be affected.

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