Getty The Iowa polls 2020 heading into the caucuses show Bernie Sanders surging ahead of Joe Biden.
It’s hard to believe it’s here already, but the Iowa caucuses are upon us. Who’s ahead in the Democratic polling for Iowa going into today’s contest? There was a recent controversy in which a key poll was scrapped because a recipient claimed Pete Buttigieg’s name was left off one interview. However, the polls before that point showed a Bernie Sanders surge in Iowa.
The caucuses are today, February 3, 2020. It’s the first nominating contest of the 2020 presidential election. According to NBC News, there’s expected to be record turnout among Democrats.
The scrapped poll was conducted by The Des Moines Register, CNN and Selzer & Co. Basically, a single person complained that Buttigieg was left off and because it was not possible to determine if that happened more, the poll wasn’t released.
However, the RealClearPolitics polling average for Iowa gives a sense of the contest as Democratic candidates have peeled off and gone home, leaving a smaller group of contenders. The polling averages show a tight contest between Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders and former Vice President Joe Biden. Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren and South Bend, Ind. Mayor Buttigieg are still in striking distance. The rest of the field – Andrew Yang, Michael Bloomberg, Tulsi Gabbard, and Amy Klobuchar – are still hobbling along.
Winning Iowa is not the be all and end all, of course, although it does pare down the field. According to NPR, from 1976 through 2016, the Iowa caucuses were won by two Democrats who became president, Barack Obama and Jimmy Carter. Six of the Democratic party’s nominees won Iowa through January 2016. Hillary Clinton also won the Iowa caucuses but by a very slim margin.
First, here’s the polling average as of the morning of February 3, 2020. Then we will break down some of the most recent polls out of the Iowa caucuses.
Real Clear Politics 2020 Polling Average in Iowa [1/20/2020-2/2/2020]
| Bernie Sanders | 24.2% |
| Joe Biden | 20.2% |
| Pete Buttigieg | 16.4% |
| Elizabeth Warren | 15.6% |
| Amy Klobuchar | 8.6% |
| Andrew Yang | 3.8% |
| Tom Steyer | 3% |
| Tulsi Gabbard | 1.2% |
| Michael Bloomberg | 0% |
Here are some of the most recent specific polls:
Emerson [1/31-2/2]
| Bernie Sanders | 28% |
| Joe Biden | 21% |
| Pete Buttigieg | 15% |
| Elizabeth Warren | 14% |
| Amy Klobuchar | 11% |
| Andrew Yang | 5% |
| Tom Steyer | 4% |
| Tulsi Gabbard | 1% |
DFP/Civiqs [1/26/20 to 1/20/20]
| Bernie Sanders | 28% |
| Elizabeth Warren | 21% |
| Joe Biden | 15% |
| Pete Buttigieg | 15% |
| Amy Klobuchar | 8% |
| Andrew Yang | 5% |
| Tom Steyer | 2% |
| Tulsi Gabbard |
2% |
Monmouth [1/23-1/27]
| Joe Biden | 23% |
| Bernie Sanders | 21% |
| Pete Buttigieg | 16% |
| Elizabeth Warren | 15% |
| Amy Klobuchar | 10% |
| Tom Steyer | 4% |
| Andrew Yang | 3% |
| Tulsi Gabbard | 1% |
DFP/Civiqs [1/26/20 to 1/20/20]
| Bernie Sanders | 28% |
| Elizabeth Warren | 21% |
| Joe Biden | 15% |
| Pete Buttigieg | 15% |
| Amy Klobuchar | 8% |
| Andrew Yang | 5% |
| Tom Steyer | 2% |
| Tulsi Gabbard |
2% |