Getty Head coach Matt LaFleur of the Green Bay Packers discusses with Aaron Rodgers #12 of the Green Bay Packers during warms up before the game against the Chicago Bears at Lambeau Field on December 15, 2019 in Green Bay, Wisconsin.
The NFL Divisional Round features four intriguing matchups as the best teams in the league step up to the tee box.
The oddsmakers wasted no time in releasing the lines and we have already seen significant movement with the spreads and totals. The Action Network has also provided a detailed itinerary for the weekend. Here are the latest lines for this weekend’s four matchups:
- Minnesota Vikings at San Francisco 49ers (spread: +7 | over/under 45)
- Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens (spread: -9 | over/under 47)
- Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs (spread: -9.5 | over/under 50)
- Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers (spread: -4 | over/under 46)
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Vikings at 49ers
This line opened at 49ers -7 and was immediately bet off that key number to 49ers -6.5. However, the majority of the bets and money are coming in on San Francisco, which is why we’ve seen the line drift back to 49ers -7. The 49ers are expecting back some key defenders from injury including defensive end Dee Ford, safety Jaquiski Tartt, and linebacker Kwon Alexander. San Francisco has the No. 2 secondary according to Pro Football Focus.
The Vikings will be without slot cornerback Mackensie Alexander who is out with a knee injury. Backup safety Andrew Sendejo will likely start in his place, which could cause a mismatch in the slot for Emmanuel Sanders, who has been stellar for San Francisco since being acquired in a trade from the Broncos. Deebo Samuel has also emerged with 634 receiving yards and 151 rushing yards and five combined touchdowns over the past 10 weeks.
Full Vikings vs. 49ers prediction found here.
READ MORE: Vikings vs. 49ers: Spread, Odds & Prediction for Divisional Round
Titans at Ravens
This line opened at Ravens -10 and has been bet down to Ravens -9.5 despite their being good two-way action on both sides. The way this line is moving, I suspect it could drop to Ravens -9 by Saturday, so if you like the Titans, bet it now. Tennessee should be getting the steam in this game after Derrick Henry‘s impressive performance against the stingy New England rushing defense.
Baltimore is significantly weaker against the run, according to Football Outsiders, so Henry could have another big game in Baltimore. Also trending towards Tennessee is an 8-3 road underdog record all-time against Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson. Baltimore could have a matchup advantage on the outside, with corner Malcolm Butler sidelined and Adoree Jackson playing in just his second game back from injury. Look for Marquise “Hollywood” Brown to potentially have a breakout game.
Full Titans vs. Ravens prediction found here.
Texans at Chiefs
This line opened at Chiefs -9 and has been bet up to Chiefs -9.5 with the majority of the bets and action coming in on Kansas City. I think this line could steam up to double-digits by game time on Sunday. This is also the biggest coaching mismatch of the weekend, as Andy Reid has a distinct advantage over Bill O’Brien. Reid coached teams are 36-25-1 ATS when they’ve had more than one week to prepare for a game, which is the case here as the Chiefs are coming off the first-round bye.
Reid is also 7-2 ATS when favored by at least one touchdown and coming off 11 or more days of rest. Meanwhile, O’Brien is 3-8-1 ATS as an underdog of seven points or more. I really like the matchup of the Chiefs high-powered offense, led by reigning MVP Patrick Mahomes, against the porous Texans defense ranked 23rd according to DVOA. Even more specifically, speedster Tyreek Hill will have a favorable matchup against slot corner Vernon Hargraves III, who is allowing a 77.5% catch rate.
Full Texans vs. Chiefs prediction found here.
Seahawks at Packers
This line opened at Packers -4 and was bet down slightly to Packers -3.5 before being pushed back up to Packers -4. I can’t see it getting any higher than Packers -4 and wouldn’t be surprised if it went back down to Packers -3.5 by game time on Sunday night, with the majority of the public backing Seattle. Aaron Rodgers has been a surprisingly mediocre quarterback this season, posting just a 7.0 YPA (17th out of 32 qualifiers).
Meanwhile, the Seahawks have a myriad of injuries to overcome on offense, including left tackle Duane Brown (knee), center Justin Britt (ACL), and running backs Chris Carson (hip) and Rashaad Penny (knee) who are all sidelined. Russell Wilson compiled 325 pass yards and 45 rush yards in Sunday’s win over the Eagles despite Seattle scoring just but just 17 points. The trend I really like in this matchup favors the under, as the weather is expected to be chilly on Sunday night at Lambeau Field. The under is 37-27 in Aaron Rodgers’ cold weather starts (under 50 degrees) since 2015.
Full Seahawks vs. Packers prediction found here.
Follow Jared Smith on Twitter: @jaredleesmith
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