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Player props provide an additional level of thrill to wagering on sports games. They offer valuable insights into a player’s ability to perform well in daily fantasy baseball or when placing bets on your preferred sportsbook.
Our AI-powered dfsPro model projects a number of individual performances worth keeping an eye on during today‘s games. Let’s dive into some of our favorite MLB player prop bets for June 3. All statistical research is from FanGraphs.
MLB Player Prop Bets
Ryne Nelson Under 16.5 Outs Recorded (-120, DraftKings)
Ryne Nelson’s under 16.5 outs recorded is tempting, although it might be a trap, but it’s still worth taking. Despite his recent 6 innings pitched performance, Nelson has stayed under in 6 out of 8 games this season.
The San Francisco Giants have shown improved offense against right-handed pitchers, boasting a wRC+ of 104.8 (ranking 11th in MLB) and an 8.4 walk% over the last 30 days (ranking 12th). Their patience at the plate, averaging 3.93 pitches per PA, works in their favor. Nelson’s struggles at home (with an ERA over 8) further support this bet, as he’s stayed under in 13 out of his last 16 home games.
Kevin Gausman Over 6.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+120, DraftKings)
This appears to be a favorable line given the matchup against the Baltimore Orioles, who rank 8th lowest in strikeout percentage against right-handed pitching this season. Their recent performance over the last 30 days places them even higher, at 4th lowest. Against the current Orioles lineup, Gausman has only struck out 25 out of 122 at bats + walks, resulting in a 20.49% strikeout percentage.
Individual matchups also support this bet, with several Orioles batters having low strikeout rates against Gausman. Taking into account these percentages, Gausman would need to face an estimated 29.28 batters to push this line. Additionally, he has historically struggled to surpass this line against the Orioles, doing so in only 4 out of 5 matchups in his career.
Overall, Gausman has pushed or gone under this line in 9 out of 11 games this season, averaging 5.1 strikeouts per game. Given the challenging matchup, combined with his lower hit rate and past performance against current Orioles batters, this presents a promising opportunity.
Nathan Eovaldi Over 4.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-135, DraftKings)
Nathan Eovaldi’s been on a tear lately, hitting the over in 7 out of his last 10 games, with half of those seeing him notch 8 strikeouts. Over his recent 10 outings, he’s been averaging 6 strikeouts per game, displaying impressive consistency. With Eovaldi regularly throwing around 90 pitches per game and lasting deep into games, he’s poised for success against the Detroit Tigers, who have struggled against right-handed pitchers. With his hot streak, solid pitch count, and favorable matchup, the odds are in his favor to exceed this strikeouts mark.
Lock of the Day
Justin Verlander To Record a Win (+120, DraftKings)
Justin Verlander and the Houston Astros have a promising opportunity to secure a win at home against the St. Louis Cardinals, especially with Altuve returning after a day of rest. St. Louis is at a disadvantage, having recently played an extra-inning game and utilizing six bullpen arms. Verlander has been in top form lately, boasting an ERA under 2.5 in 7 out of his last 10 starts and averaging 5.5 strikeouts per outing this season. Conversely, the Cardinals are traveling to Houston with Kyle Gibson on the mound, who holds a concerning 5.22 xERA and is favored to surrender over 2.5 runs. Houston’s impressive offensive performance against right-handed pitchers in recent days further solidifies their advantage in this matchup.
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