Juan Soto ‘Extremely Likely’ To Sign Historic Contract in Free Agency

Getty Juan Soto

Juan Soto’s first — and maybe only — season with the New York Yankees has exceeded all reasonable expectations. That’s why it seems inevitable that he will sign a massive contract in the offseason, and whichever team lands his services may offer him a historic deal.

That’s what Bleacher Report’s Kerry Miller projects. Miller published a story on Sunday, August 11, outlining the upcoming free agents who have boosted their stocks the most this season, and naturally Soto is on that list.

Through 115 games played, Soto is hitting .304 with a 1.018 OPS, 30 home runs, 97 runs scored, and 82 RBI.

As Miller points out, that puts him on track for career highs in home runs and runs scored, as well as his best OPS ever in a 162-game season (he had a 1.185 OPS in the COVID-shortened 2020 season).

“Whatever your guess was three months ago as to what Soto would get this offseason, might want to tack another 10 percent onto that,” Miller wrote.

That says a lot for a player who once turned down a 15-year, $440 million contract with the Washington Nationals. Two years later, his payday could be even bigger.

“At this point, it is extremely likely the present-day value of Soto’s contract will exceed the $460M present-day value of the deal Shohei Ohtani signed last winter,” Miller continued.

(Ohtani’s record-setting contract is actually worth $700 million, but with the bulk of that money deferred, one must factor in inflation. That’s where the $460 million estimation comes from.)

Soto will turn 26 in the offseason, so a contract at the same length that the Nationals offered would take him through his age 40 season. Whether that happens or not, $460 million seems like a realistic record to pass considering he’s already making $31 million this season.

The Yankees Are Expected To Make a Hard Push for Juan Soto

In less than one season, Soto has flourished with the Yankees. With Aaron Judge having another historic season, he and Soto have become arguably the most fearsome duo in the game batting second and third in the order.

Mark Sanchez of the New York Post reported on Friday, August 9, exactly what Yankees fans could have assumed: that bringing Soto back would be the team’s top priority in the offseason.

That’s in line with what team owner Hal Steinbrenner said in May, when he told the YES Network’s Jack Curry that he wants Soto in pinstripes for the rest of his career. But as Sanchez points out, retaining Soto would limit where else the team can add in the offseason.

“If Soto is retained, the club would likely have little to spend elsewhere,” he wrote. “Hal Steinbrenner has said the Yankees’ 2024 payroll, which will exceed $300 million, is ‘simply not sustainable.’”

Who Else Could Make a Run at Juan Soto?

Soto has made it no secret that he’s open to staying in New York, but he also isn’t going to limit his options in the offseason.

“We’re going to be open to this with anybody and everybody. We ain’t closing any doors,” he told reporters in San Diego in May. “Whoever wants to talk about deals and stuff, I’m open to it with everybody. I don’t have any problem with that.”

In theory, that opens the door for all 30 teams. In reality, only a few will have the budget to land him. The Yankees are obviously one of those teams, but so are the cross-town Mets. Mets owner Steve Cohen has never hesitated to open his wallet, and the chance to do so while sticking it to the rival Yankees will surely be tempting.

The Dodgers are also natural candidates. If they elect not to bring back free-agent-to-be Teoscar Hernandez, Soto can play left field with Mookie Betts in right. Factor in another year of Freddie Freeman, Shohei Ohtani, and Co., and the Dodgers could have a historically great offense next season and beyond.

The Phillies will have the resources and the need as well. Their outfielders have left a bit to be desired at the plate, and with an excellent pitching staff already, Soto can put them over the top.

It doesn’t even have to be the usual suspects vying for Soto, however. Bleacher Report’s Zachary Rymer floated the Blue Jays as a possibility and, if Toronto is willing to invest, it would make sense. The Jays elected not to trade their young core at the deadline, and with Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. another year closer to free agency, they may want to go all-in for 2025.