YouTube The twelve remaining contestants convene in episode 6 of "Survivor 42."
With the elimination of Daniel Strunk in last night’s episode of “Survivor 42,” twelve players remain in the game, but only one will be crowned the Sole Survivor. Who will that lucky contestant be? Well, as we learned from last season’s surprising finale, anything is possible, and the edit can be misleading, but there are still signs pointing toward certain contestants in “Survivor 42” over others.
Read on to find out might lie in store for the remaining 12 castaways, and how the story may unfold over the next 7 episodes:
Analyzing the ‘Survivor’ Edit
Confessional counts are widely used by fans and commentators alike to analyze how contestants are faring in their edit; usually the biggest breakout characters of the show have the highest number of confessionals, and quieter, more low-key players have fewer. Confessional counts are also one of the key measures used by Survivor Edgic, a site meant to predict the eventual winner of each season based on their gameplay and edit.
Although winners tend to get stronger, more high-key edits, that isn’t always the case. Most recently, fans will remember that Erika Casupanan, the winner of “Survivor 41,” had a notoriously quiet edit, leading many fans to suspect going into the finale that the winner would either be Ricard Foyé or Xander Hastings.
This subversion of expectations (alongside an edit which doesn’t showcase the winner’s story) can also result in a bit of backlash from fans, as happened with Erika. More notably, this also happened with Natalie White and Sandra Diaz-Twine in seasons 19, “Samoa,” and 20, “Heroes vs. Villains,” respectively, both of whom were severely underedited as winners. At the time, many viewers were outraged that the win didn’t go to Russell Hantz, or, in the case of season 20, Parvati Shallow, both of whom received much stronger edits than the winner did.
One ’42’ Contestant Is Currently Getting a Stronger Edit Than Most
According to a fan breakdown of the confessionals in the season thus far, it appears as though some contestants are being highlighted much more than others.
The first five episodes of the season show a clear frontrunner in who is getting the most screentime: Hoboken, New Jersey native Mike Turner, who, at 57, is also the season’s oldest contestant. Mike has received 19 confessionals thus far; three contestants – one of whom has already been voted out – come in second at 16. Apart from Daniel, who was voted out last night and obviously has no chance, Mike is trailed by his Vati tribemate Hai Giang – whose perspective we saw much of last episode – as well as Taku’s Maryanne Oketch.
In addition, as of episode 4, Edgic has declared that Mike has had the best edit so far, being the only contestant to receive a “Positive” or “Super Positive” edit in every single episode.
Interestingly, the contestant who has the highest average of confessionals per episode may not be one you’d expect: it is, in fact, the first boot of the season: 21-year-old Zach Wurtenberger, who received 6 confessionals in his lone episode, a record beaten only once, by Chanelle Howard in episode 3 (in which she received 7).
Many Fans Are Rooting for Taku
The orange Taku tribe has arguably been the breakout tribe of the season, with the four remaining members – Maryanne, Lindsay Dolashewich, Omar Zaheer, and the brawny challenge beats Jonathan Young – receiving a fairly positive edit as a combined four, with many fans “intensely rooting” for them, some even calling them “one of the most likeable tribes ever.”
Indeed, the Taku 4 are quite united, especially when compared to Ika (whose secondary target, Tori Meehan, said last episode that she would be the “first one to jump ship” come the merge), and Vati, who recently went through two tumultuous and fractured Tribal Councils, with Chanelle, already on the bottom of that four, likely to be feeling isolated from the rest of her tribe going forward.
Although Taku has been portrayed to be a relatively tight foursome since the elimination of Marya Sherron in episode 2, last night’s episode also demonstrated that there were some fractures taking place. Jonathan in particular began to get peeved by Maryanne and Lindsay, even suggesting to the latter that they eliminate Maryanne if they get the chance (a suggestion to which Lindsay agreed, though it is unknown whether she was being genuine). Now that we know the Taku 4 gets to the merge (or at least the fake merge) intact, it will be interesting to see whether they will still want to flip against their own, or whether they see the fractures in the other tribes as a benefit to themselves.
Sometimes silence is key!🔑😂 #Survivor
If Taku 4 does remain strong, and the edit is any indication of this season’s winner, both Jonathan and Omar are looking like strong contenders, per Edgic (both have each had one “Super Positive” and one “Positive” episode when it comes to the edit, as of the first four episodes). However, nothing is certain, and it remains to be seen whether Taku will indeed even survive at all.
In “Survivor 41,” the merge/fake merge saw tribal loyalties dissolve completely, mostly due to bonds formed during journeys to The Summit. Alliances and loyalties were shuffled and re-shuffled come Day 12, and the end result was a number of voting pacts and bonds which completely transgressed old tribal lines, which is unusual for a season with no tribe swap. It seems as though we may see a similar phenomenon play out in the upcoming episode of “42,” given the tension in Vati and Ika, though that may all depend on how the Taku 4 decide to role with it. And, of course, on the outcome of the notorious Hourglass twist.
“Survivor 42” airs Wednesdays at 8 p.m. Eastern and Pacific on CBS. The finale will air Wednesday, May 25, 2022.