New Hampshire
Martin O’Malley trails by a significant margin in the first two states and nationally. (Getty)
Two new polls cut Sanders’s double-digit lead from last week to striking distance for Clinton. Emerson College puts Sanders at an 8-point lead, 52-44, while American Research Group gives Sanders a 7-point 49-42 lead. Both polls show O’Malley at just 3 percent.
While these polls are significantly tighter than last week’s 14-to-16-point advantages for Sanders, he still leads in the RealClearPolitics aggregation of recent polls by 14.3 points, with 53.7 percent to Clinton’s 39.6, with O’Malley holding 2.6 percent.
New Hampshire Polling Averages (by RealClearPolitics)
- Bernie Sanders: 53.7%
- Hillary Clinton: 39.4%
- Martin O’Malley: 2.9%
FiveThirtyEight’s polls-plus forecast favors Sanders 75 percent to 25 percent. In their polls-only model, Sanders rises to an 93 percent favorite, compared to Clinton’s 7.
FiveThirtyEight Polls-Plus Forecast for New Hampshire
The Rest of the Country
Clinton aide Huma Abedin, here testifying at a House Committee on Benghazi hearing, was Clinton’s Deputy Chief of Staff during Clinton’s time as Secretary of State and may be implicated in her email scandal, according to California Representative Darrell Issa. (Getty)
A recent national poll from Investors Business Daily came out Friday showing a 12-point lead for Clinton. This is in keeping with most national polls since the campaign began, and is not particularly predictive information: national polls include voters that won’t cast a ballot or head to the caucus for as many as five months, and a lot can change between now and then.
The RealClearPolitics averages update to include the latest poll shows Clinton’s lead at 14.4 points at 51.6 percent, with Sanders taking 37.2 and O’Malley taking 2.2.
National Polling Averages (by RealClearPolitics)
- Hillary Clinton: 51.6%
- Bernie Sanders: 37.2%
- Martin O’Malley: 2.2%
The betting markets aggregated by PredictWise show Clinton at an 82 percent favorite to win the Democratic nomination, with Sanders at 17 percent and Martin O’Malley off the board.
News of the Day
Democratic Primary & Debate Schedule
Debate Schedule
Wisconsin: February 11, PBS
Florida: March 9, Univision
Iowa: February 1
New Hampshire: February 9
Nevada: February 20
South Carolina: February 27
Super Tuesday (Alabama, American Samoa, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oklahoma,
Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia): March 1
Kansas, Louisiana: March 5
Maine: March 6
Michigan, Mississippi, Democrats Abroad: March 8
Northern Mariana Islands: March 12
Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio: March 15
Arizona, Idaho, Utah: March 22
Alaska, Hawaii, Washington: March 26
Wisconsin: April 5
Wyoming: April 9
New York: April 19
Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island: April 26
Indiana: May 3
West Virginia: May 10
Kentucky, Oregon: May 17
California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Dakota, South Dakota: June 7
Washington, D.C.: June 14
