GOP Polls for Jan. 16: State of the Race in Iowa & New Hampshire


The Rest of the Country

Rand Paul, here at a 2015 rally, may have benefited from boycotting Thursday's undercard debate. (Getty)

Rand Paul, here at a 2015 rally, may have benefited from boycotting Thursday’s undercard debate. (Getty)

Thursday’s new national poll shows Trump with a 13-point lead over Cruz at 33 percent to 20 percent, with Rubio polling at 13 percent and Ben Carson 12. This slightly lowers Trump’s RealClearPolitics average of 34.5 percent, to Cruz’s 19.3, Rubio’s 11.8, and Carson’s 9.

National Polling Averages (According to RealClearPolitics)

  • Donald Trump: 34.5%
  • Ted Cruz: 19.3%
  • Marco Rubio: %
  • Ben Carson: 9%
  • The PredictWise betting aggregation is now calling Trump the favorite, having risen from 24 percent to 35 percent over the month. Longtime frontrunner Rubio remains fairly consistent, his 32 percent just off his year-beginning 35 percent. Cruz runs third with 20 percent, with Bush holding 10 percent and Christie 3.

    News of the Day

  • Several candidates responded to America’s prisoner swap with Iran: while all expressed relief that the American prisoners were returning home, all but Rand Paul decried what Cruz termed potentially “very problematic” aspects of the State Department’s negotiations.
  • Rand Paul’s decision to skip the debate may have paid off: he gained the most Twitter followers during the debate, and #LetRandDebate was the third-most popular hashtag on Twitter at the time.

    GOP Primary & Debate Schedule

    Debate Schedule

    Iowa: January 28, Fox News

    New Hampshire: February 6, ABC News

    South Carolina: February 13, CBS

    Texas: February 26, NBC/Telemundo/National Review

    Location TBD: March 2016, Fox News

    Florida: Date TBD, CNN/Salem Radio

    Primary Schedule
    Iowa: February 1

    New Hampshire: February 9

    South Carolina: February 20

    Nevada: February 23

    Super Tuesday (Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Dakota, Oklahoma,
    Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, Wyoming): March 1

    Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine: March 5

    Puerto Rico: March 6

    Hawaii, Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi: March 8

    Guam, Washington, D.C.: March 12

    Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, Northern Mariana Islands, Ohio: March 15

    Virgin Islands: March 19

    American Samoa, Arizona, Utah: March 22

    Wisconsin: April 5

    Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island: April 26

    Indiana: May 3

    Nebraska, West Virginia: May 10

    Oregon: May 17

    Washington: May 24

    California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, South Dakota: June 7