GOP Polls for Jan. 16: State of the Race in Iowa & New Hampshire

Donald Trump, here campaigning in Iowa, has the lead in national and New Hampshire polls. (Getty)

We’re just 15 days from the Iowa caucus. The impact of Thursday’s debate won’t be seen in the polls for a while, and no organizations released polls Friday. Recent polls show Ted Cruz with a small advantage Donald Trump in Iowa and Marco Rubio third. Trump and Cruz flip nationally, with New Hampshire showing a strong Trump lead and Rubio leading the runner-up race by a nose in New Hampshire.

Here’s a look at the state of the race:

Iowa

Cruz, here campaigning in South Carolina, holds the Des Moines Register polling edge in Iowa, though other recent polls disagree. (Getty)

According to the highly regarded poll from the Des Moines Register, Cruz leads Trump 25 percent to 22 percent, with Rubio at 12 percent and Ben Carson at 11. Trump, however, takes the lead in the latest Gravis and Public Policy Polling releases. The RealClearPolitics averages show Trump with a 0.4-point lead over Cruz at 27.3 to 26.9 percent, with Rubio running third at 11.9 percent and Carson fourth at 9.

Iowa Polling Averages (by RealClearPolitics)

FiveThirtyEight, which takes more than polls into account when forecasting, shows Cruz with a 51 percent chance of taking Iowa, with Trump at 29 percent and Rubio at 14.

FiveThirtyEight Model

The betting markets as aggregated by Predictwise took a sharp downward turn for Cruz in the past week, but he rose to 63 percent from 58, still far off his high of 79 percent but stopping a serious downward trend. Trump fell slightly from 33 to 31 percent, with Rubio taking 4 percent and Carson tying Jeb Bush at 1.

New Hampshire

Marco Rubio, here at Thursday’s GOP debate, takes the runner-up position in most New Hampshire polls. (Getty)

With the most recent New Hampshire poll released January 11, the RealClearPolitics averages remain consistent, showing Trump with a 17.6-point lead over Rubio, 30.4 percent to 12.8 percent, with Kasich third at 11.2, Cruz at 11, Chris Christie at 9.2, and Jeb Bush at 8.4. Huffpost Pollster, which did not include the NH1/Reach poll, has Trump with 29.1 percent to Rubio’s 14.2 percent, with Cruz at 11.9, Christie at 11.3, Kasich at 10.5, and Bush at 7.8.

New Hampshire Polling Averages (by RealClearPolitics)

FiveThirtyEight gives Trump a 39 percent chance to win New Hampshire, with Rubio at 21 percent, Cruz at 13, and Kasich at 11. This is significant because FiveThirtyEight controls 20 percent for previous primaries, meaning Trump still has a solid projection even after his assumed loss in Iowa.

FiveThirtyEight Model

The PredictWise betting averages show Trump continuing his month-long climb, with a 56 percent chance to take the state. Rubio dips one point to with 14 percent, then Cruz at 11 percent, with everyone else in single digits.

Click below for a national polling roundup and a discussion of today’s news.

The Rest of the Country

Rand Paul, here at a 2015 rally, may have benefited from boycotting Thursday’s undercard debate. (Getty)

Thursday’s new national poll shows Trump with a 13-point lead over Cruz at 33 percent to 20 percent, with Rubio polling at 13 percent and Ben Carson 12. This slightly lowers Trump’s RealClearPolitics average of 34.5 percent, to Cruz’s 19.3, Rubio’s 11.8, and Carson’s 9.

National Polling Averages (According to RealClearPolitics)

The PredictWise betting aggregation is now calling Trump the favorite, having risen from 24 percent to 35 percent over the month. Longtime frontrunner Rubio remains fairly consistent, his 32 percent just off his year-beginning 35 percent. Cruz runs third with 20 percent, with Bush holding 10 percent and Christie 3.

News of the Day

Rand Paul’s decision to skip the debate may have paid off: he gained the most Twitter followers during the debate, and #LetRandDebate was the third-most popular hashtag on Twitter at the time.

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GOP Primary & Debate Schedule

Debate Schedule

Iowa: January 28, Fox News

New Hampshire: February 6, ABC News

South Carolina: February 13, CBS

Texas: February 26, NBC/Telemundo/National Review

Location TBD: March 2016, Fox News

Florida: Date TBD, CNN/Salem Radio

Primary Schedule
Iowa: February 1

New Hampshire: February 9

South Carolina: February 20

Nevada: February 23

Super Tuesday (Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Dakota, Oklahoma,
Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, Wyoming): March 1

Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine: March 5

Puerto Rico: March 6

Hawaii, Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi: March 8

Guam, Washington, D.C.: March 12

Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, Northern Mariana Islands, Ohio: March 15

Virgin Islands: March 19

American Samoa, Arizona, Utah: March 22

Wisconsin: April 5

Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island: April 26

Indiana: May 3

Nebraska, West Virginia: May 10

Oregon: May 17

Washington: May 24

California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, South Dakota: June 7

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