GOP Polls for Jan. 24: State of the Race in Iowa & New Hampshire


New Hampshire

Ted Cruz polls, Ted Cruz Iowa, Ted Cruz New Hampshire

Ted Cruz memorabilia sits on a table in New Hampshire, where the Senator is surging in the polls. (Getty)

New polls by CBS News/YouGov and Fox News both show substantial leads for Trump, with a crowded runner-up field behind him. With CBS News/YouGov, Trump sits at 34 percent, an 18-point lead over Cruz’s 16 percent, with 14 percent for Rubio and 10 for Ohio governor John Kasich. Fox News has Trump at 31 percent, a 17-point lead over the 14 percent share for Cruz, with Rubio at 13 and Kasich at 9. Either way, the 20-point, runner-up-by-7 showing for Kasich in the American Research Group is looking more and more like an outlier.

According to RealClearPolitics polling averages, Trump has a 18.6-point lead with 32 percent of the vote, with Kasich at 13.4, Cruz third at 11.4, and Rubio at 10.

New Hampshire Polling Averages (by RealClearPolitics)

  • Donald Trump: 32.2%
  • Ted Cruz: 12.6%
  • John Kasich: 12%
  • Marco Rubio: 11.2%
  • FiveThirtyEight’s polls-plus forecast gives Trump a 46 percent chance to win New Hampshire, with Rubio at 14 percent, Kasich at 13, and Cruz at 12. Since FiveThirtyEight controls 20 percent for previous primary results, Trump’s good news in the previous state can only help. Their polls-only forecast bumps Trump to 62 percent, with no one else in double digits.

    FiveThirtyEight Polls-Plus Forecast

  • Donald Trump: 46%
  • Marco Rubio: 14%
  • John Kasich: 13%
  • Ted Cruz: 12%
  • In the PredictWise betting averages, Trump is a 68 percent favorite, while Marco Rubio climbs to 10 percent, the only other candidate in double digits.


    The Rest of the Country

    Glenn Beck endorsement, Republican endorsements, Glenn Beck endorsement

    Conservative pundit Glenn Beck endorsed Ted Cruz on Saturday. (Getty)

    Saturday’s national poll from Fox News shows Trump with a 14-point lead over Cruz, 34 percent to 20 percent, with Marco Rubio taking 11. Reuters/Ipsos was even more favorable, giving Trump 40.6 percent of the vote, a 30.1-point lead over Cruz’s 10.5 percent, with Carson at 9.7, Jeb Bush at 9.2 and Marco Rubio at 7.2.

    The RealClearPolitics polling averages did not include the Reuters/Ipsos poll, but the Fox News poll shifts the averages to give Trump a 15.8-point lead at 34.6 percent, with Cruz taking 18.8 percent and Rubio at 11.6.

    National Polling Averages (According to RealClearPolitics)

  • Donald Trump: 34.6%
  • Ted Cruz: 18.8%
  • Marco Rubio: 11.2%
  • The PredictWise betting aggregation shows Trump at a new high of 45 percent, with former frontrunner Rubio at 30 percent and Cruz holding third with 12 percent. Jeb Bush takes 10 percent, with Chris Christie at 2 and John Kasich at 1.

    News of the Day

  • Conservative pundit Glenn Beck, who joined National Review’s condemnation of Trump, endorsed Cruz at an Iowa event Saturday.
  • Businessman, gun control advocate and former Republican New York City mayor Michael Bloomberg continues to consider an independent run for President.

  • GOP Primary & Debate Schedule

    Debate Schedule

    Iowa: January 28, Fox News

    New Hampshire: February 6, ABC News

    South Carolina: February 13, CBS

    Texas: February 26, CNN

    Location TBD: March 2016, Fox News

    Florida: Date TBD, CNN/Salem Radio

    Primary Schedule
    Iowa: February 1

    New Hampshire: February 9

    South Carolina: February 20

    Nevada: February 23

    Super Tuesday (Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Dakota, Oklahoma,
    Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, Wyoming): March 1

    Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine: March 5

    Puerto Rico: March 6

    Hawaii, Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi: March 8

    Guam, Washington, D.C.: March 12

    Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, Northern Mariana Islands, Ohio: March 15

    Virgin Islands: March 19

    American Samoa, Arizona, Utah: March 22

    Wisconsin: April 5

    Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island: April 26

    Indiana: May 3

    Nebraska, West Virginia: May 10

    Oregon: May 17

    Washington: May 24

    California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, South Dakota: June 7

    0
    Would love your thoughts, please commentx
    ()
    x