Nevada: Few Polls, but a Trump Advantage
Marco Rubio had a disappointing New Hampshire finish, but there’s no telling just yet how it will impact his next two states. (Getty)
The Polls
The most recent poll for Nevada was released December 28, meaning that the numbers are even more out of date than those for South Carolina. The nearest polling data we have suggests a sizeable Trump lead:
| Gravis | Released January 28 |
| Donald Trump | 33% |
| Ted Cruz | 20% |
| Marco Rubio | 11% |
| CNN/ORC | Released October 14 |
| Donald Trump | 38% |
| Ben Carson | 22% |
| Marco Rubio | 7% |
RealClearPolitics has not released an average for the Nevada polls owing to this lack of recency.
The Forecasts
FiveThirtyEight has not given a polls-plus projection for Nevada, owing to a lack of recent polling data. Their polls-only forecast for Nevada favors Trump:
The Betting Markets
Presidential betting markets, which react more quickly than polling organizations or forecasts derived from them, offer key insight into the day-to-day movement of the race. PredictWise aggregates various betting markets into a summary of the betting action, which at this point is highly favorable to Trump, Cruz and Rubio competitive:
| Donald Trump | 61% |
| Ted Cruz | 24% |
| Marco Rubio | 11% |
The Rest of the Country: Trump Leads, but Rivals Closer
New Jersey governor Chris Christie dropped out of the Republican race after Tuesday’s New Hampshire primary but declined to name an endorsement. (Getty)
The Polls
In contrast to South Carolina and Nevada, there are new polls for the nation as a whole, and several of them show Trump’s rivals cutting into his lead. However, even the three newest polls are from the beginning of February, before Trump’s big win in New Hampshire and disappointing results from some strong Iowa finishers:
| Rasmussen | Released February 8 |
| Donald Trump | 31% |
| Marco Rubio | 21% |
| Ted Cruz | 20% |
| Quinnipiac | Released February 5 |
| Donald Trump | 31% |
| Ted Cruz | 22% |
| Marco Rubio | 19% |
| Public Policy Polling | Released February 4 |
| Donald Trump | 25% |
| Ted Cruz | 21% |
| Marco Rubio | 21% |
RealClearPolitics aggregated these polls into a rolling average:
| RealClearPolitics Averages | |
| Donald Trump | 29.5% |
| Ted Cruz | 21% |
| Marco Rubio | 17.8% |
The Betting Markets
The PredictWise aggregated betting market data shows a sharp rise for Trump and a sharp fall for Rubio after a big win and a disappointing finish in New Hampshire, respectively. Meanwhile, John Kasich’s odds rise sharply but remain fairly remote following his surprise finish in New Hampshire:
| Betting Market Data | |
| Donald Trump | 44% |
| Marco Rubio | 23% |
| Ted Cruz | 18% |
| John Kasich | 12% |
News of the Day
- Planned Parenthood’s Ohio affiliate started a “five-figure” ad campaign pressuring Kasich not to sign a bill defunding the organization in his state.
- Trump reached a settlement in his lawsuit against Spanish-language broadcaster Univision after the network declined to broadcast the Trump-owned Miss USA pageant. Details of the settlement were not disclosed.
GOP Primary & Debate Schedule
Debate Schedule
South Carolina: February 13, CBS
Texas: February 26, CNN
Location TBD: March 2016, Fox News
Florida: Date TBD, CNN/Salem Radio
Primary Schedule
South Carolina: February 20
Nevada: February 23
Super Tuesday (Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Dakota, Oklahoma,
Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, Wyoming): March 1
Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine: March 5
Puerto Rico: March 6
Hawaii, Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi: March 8
Guam, Washington, D.C.: March 12
Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, Northern Mariana Islands, Ohio: March 15
Virgin Islands: March 19
American Samoa, Arizona, Utah: March 22
Wisconsin: April 5
Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island: April 26
Indiana: May 3
Nebraska, West Virginia: May 10
Oregon: May 17
Washington: May 24
California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, South Dakota: June 7