GOP Polls for Feb. 17: State of the Race in South Carolina & Nevada

Ted Cruz, here at a campaign event in South Carolina, is polling runner-up in that state, Nevada and nationally. Getty

After a heated debate in South Carolina on Saturday, the focus turns to the state’s “First in the South” primary February 20. Donald Trump leads the states poll’s, according to RealClearPolitics, as well as those in the next state, Nevada. The FiveThirtyEight forecasts and PredictWise prediction markets also come down in Trump’s favor.

Delegate Count

Here’s a look at the state of the race:

South Carolina: Trump Well Ahead

John Kasich, here at the South Carolina debate, started to build momentum in South Carolina, but it might be too late. (Getty)

The Polls

Two new polls from South Carolina show a convincing lead for Trump, with Cruz, Rubio and Bush consistently pulling double digits behind him and Kasich slowing in momentum.

These are consistent with polls from earlier in the week:

RealClearPolitics consolidated these polls into an average for all candidates:

With South Carolina voting Saturday, Trump looks from the state of the polls to add another win to New Hampshire.

The Forecasts

FiveThirtyEight’s polls-plus projections uses external factors like endorsements, the impact of previous state primaries, and national polling trends to give context to state polling numbers. Their forecast for South Carolina significantly favors Trump:

Their polls-only forecast, which weights polls according to methodological rigor and past accuracy, is even friendlier to Trump:

The Betting Markets

Presidential betting markets, which react more quickly than polling organizations or forecasts derived from them, offer key insight into the day-to-day movement of the race. PredictWise aggregates various betting markets into a summary of the betting action, which at this point is highly favorable to Trump, with only Cruz competitive otherwise:

Click the “next page” button below for Nevada and national polling roundup, as well as a discussion of today’s news.

Nevada: Few Polls, but a Trump Advantage

Marco Rubio, here in North Carolina, is having trouble breaking through following a disappointing New Hampshire finish. (Getty)

The Polls

A new poll in Nevada has Trump well ahead, with Rubio taking the runner-up spot from Cruz:

The most recent previous poll for Nevada was released December 28, meaning that the numbers are even more out of date than those for South Carolina. However, it shows Trump has actually increased his lead:

RealClearPolitics averaged these two polls:

The Forecasts

FiveThirtyEight has not given a polls-plus projection for Nevada, owing to a lack of recent polling data. Their polls-only forecast for Nevada favors Trump:

The Betting Markets

Presidential betting markets, which react more quickly than polling organizations or forecasts derived from them, offer key insight into the day-to-day movement of the race. PredictWise aggregates various betting markets into a summary of the betting action, which at this point is highly favorable to Trump, with Rubio competitive:

The Rest of the Country: Trump Leads, but Rivals Closer

Governor Nikki Haley, here at a GOP event in South Carolina, endorsed Rubio for President Wednesday. (Getty)

The Polls

New national polls show that Trump’s national lead may not be as secure as his state leads seem, but the extent of which, and who benefits, is a heavily mixed message:

RealClearPolitics aggregated these polls into a rolling average:

The Betting Markets

The PredictWise aggregated betting market data shows a sharp rise for Trump and a sharp fall for Rubio after a big win and a disappointing finish in New Hampshire, respectively. Meanwhile, John Kasich’s odds rise sharply but remain fairly remote following his surprise finish in New Hampshire:

News of the Day

• Nikki Haley, the South Carolina Republican governor, State of the Union responder, and potential VP candidate, is reportedly set to endorse Rubio.
• Cruz responded dismissively to Trump’s threat of a lawsuit regarding his citizenship.

GOP Primary & Debate Schedule

Debate Schedule

Texas: February 26, CNN

Location TBD: March 2016, Fox News

Florida: Date TBD, CNN/Salem Radio

Primary Schedule

South Carolina: February 20

Nevada: February 23

Super Tuesday (Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Dakota, Oklahoma,
Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, Wyoming): March 1

Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine: March 5

Puerto Rico: March 6

Hawaii, Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi: March 8

Guam, Washington, D.C.: March 12

Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, Northern Mariana Islands, Ohio: March 15

Virgin Islands: March 19

American Samoa, Arizona, Utah: March 22

Wisconsin: April 5

Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island: April 26

Indiana: May 3

Nebraska, West Virginia: May 10

Oregon: May 17

Washington: May 24

California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, South Dakota: June 7

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Democratic Polls for Feb. 16: State of the Race in Nevada & South Carolina