GOP Polls for Feb. 15: State of the Race in South Carolina & Nevada

The Republican Presidential candidates at the South Carolina debate. (Getty)

After a heated debate in South Carolina on Saturday, the focus turns to the state’s “First in the South” primary February 20. Donald Trump leads the states poll’s, according to RealClearPolitics, as well as those in the next state, Nevada. The FiveThirtyEight forecasts and PredictWise prediction markets also come down in Trump’s favor.

Delegate Count

Here’s a look at the state of the race:

South Carolina: Trump Well Ahead

Donald Trump, here before the debate in South Carolina, leads the states polls. Getty

The Polls

Two new polls from South Carolina show a convincing lead for Trump, with Cruz, Rubio and Bush consistently pulling double digits behind him and Kasich starting to show momentum.

Trump figures to have actually increased his lead from last week’s polls:

RealClearPolitics consolidated these polls into an average for all candidates:

With one week to go until South Carolina votes, Trump looks from the state of the polls to add another win to New Hampshire.

The Forecasts

FiveThirtyEight’s polls-plus projections uses external factors like endorsements, the impact of previous state primaries, and national polling trends to give context to state polling numbers. Their forecast for South Carolina significantly favors Trump:

Their polls-only forecast, which weights polls according to methodological rigor and past accuracy, is even friendlier to Trump:

The Betting Markets

Presidential betting markets, which react more quickly than polling organizations or forecasts derived from them, offer key insight into the day-to-day movement of the race. PredictWise aggregates various betting markets into a summary of the betting action, which at this point is highly favorable to Trump, with only Cruz competitive otherwise:

Click the “next page” button below for Nevada and national polling roundup, as well as a discussion of today’s news.

Nevada: Few Polls, but a Trump Advantage

Ted Cruz, pictured here at the South Carolina debate, is Donald Trump’s nearest competitor in Nevada. (Getty)

The Polls

The most recent poll for Nevada was released December 28, meaning that the numbers are even more out of date than those for South Carolina. The nearest polling data we have suggests a sizeable Trump lead:

RealClearPolitics has not released an average for the Nevada polls owing to this lack of recency.

The Forecasts

FiveThirtyEight has not given a polls-plus projection for Nevada, owing to a lack of recent polling data. Their polls-only forecast for Nevada favors Trump:

The Betting Markets

Presidential betting markets, which react more quickly than polling organizations or forecasts derived from them, offer key insight into the day-to-day movement of the race. PredictWise aggregates various betting markets into a summary of the betting action, which at this point is highly favorable to Trump, Cruz and Rubio competitive:

The Rest of the Country: Trump Leads, but Rivals Closer

Iranian Defence Minister Ali Shamkhani, pictured here following the Iranian nuclear deal, alleged that GOP lawmakers asked him to delay releasing an American prisoner until after the election. (Getty)

The Polls

The most recent national polls show Trump’s rivals cutting into his lead. However, even the three newest polls are from the beginning of February, before Trump’s big win in New Hampshire and disappointing results from some strong Iowa finishers:

RealClearPolitics aggregated these polls into a rolling average:

The Betting Markets

The PredictWise aggregated betting market data shows a sharp rise for Trump and a sharp fall for Rubio after a big win and a disappointing finish in New Hampshire, respectively. Meanwhile, John Kasich’s odds rise sharply but remain fairly remote following his surprise finish in New Hampshire:

News of the Day

• Iranian Defence Minister Ali Shamkhani alleged that GOP lawmakers asked him to delay release of an American prisoner until after the 2016 presidential election.

GOP Primary & Debate Schedule

Debate Schedule

Texas: February 26, CNN

Location TBD: March 2016, Fox News

Florida: Date TBD, CNN/Salem Radio

Primary Schedule

South Carolina: February 20

Nevada: February 23

Super Tuesday (Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Dakota, Oklahoma,
Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, Wyoming): March 1

Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine: March 5

Puerto Rico: March 6

Hawaii, Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi: March 8

Guam, Washington, D.C.: March 12

Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, Northern Mariana Islands, Ohio: March 15

Virgin Islands: March 19

American Samoa, Arizona, Utah: March 22

Wisconsin: April 5

Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island: April 26

Indiana: May 3

Nebraska, West Virginia: May 10

Oregon: May 17

Washington: May 24

California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, South Dakota: June 7

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South Carolina Polls 2016: Trump Leads the Pack; Rubio Won the Debate