GOP Polls for Feb. 19: State of the Race in South Carolina & Nevada

Marco Rubio at CNN’s town hall Wednesday night. (Getty)

After impassioned town hall performances in South Carolina Wednesday and Thursday, the focus turns to the state’s “First in the South” primary February 20. Donald Trump leads the state’s poll’s, according to RealClearPolitics, as well as those in the next state, Nevada. The FiveThirtyEight forecasts and PredictWise prediction markets also come down in Trump’s favor.

Delegate Count

Here’s a look at the state of the race:

South Carolina: Trump Well Ahead

John Kasich, here at a campaign event, had been building momentum in South Carolina but has inconsistent results in the latest polls. (Getty)

The Polls

A deluge of new polls from South Carolina hit late Thursday and Friday, all showing Trump leads (and most by double digits), with Cruz, Rubio and Bush consistently pulling double digits behind him and Kasich showing strong in some polls.

These are consistent with polls from earlier in the week:

RealClearPolitics consolidated these polls into an average for all candidates:

John Kasich10%

With South Carolina voting Saturday, Trump’s slightly slowed momentum looks like it will have enough steam to get a big win in the Palmetto State.

The Forecasts

FiveThirtyEight’s polls-plus projections uses external factors like endorsements, the impact of previous state primaries, and national polling trends to give context to state polling numbers. Their forecast for South Carolina significantly favors Trump:

Their polls-only forecast, which weights polls according to methodological rigor and past accuracy, is even friendlier to Trump:

The Betting Markets

Presidential betting markets, which react more quickly than polling organizations or forecasts derived from them, offer key insight into the day-to-day movement of the race. PredictWise aggregates various betting markets into a summary of the betting action, which at this point is highly favorable to Trump, with only Cruz competitive otherwise:

Click the “next page” button below for Nevada and national polling roundup, as well as a discussion of today’s news.

Nevada: Few Polls, but a Trump Advantage

Marco Rubio, here in North Carolina, is having trouble breaking through following a disappointing New Hampshire finish. (Getty)

The Polls

A new poll in Nevada has Trump well ahead, with Rubio taking the runner-up spot from Cruz:

The most recent previous poll for Nevada was released December 28, meaning that the numbers are even more out of date than those for South Carolina. However, it shows Trump has actually increased his lead:

RealClearPolitics averaged these two polls:

The Forecasts

FiveThirtyEight has not given a polls-plus projection for Nevada, owing to a lack of recent polling data. Their polls-only forecast for Nevada favors Trump:

The Betting Markets

Presidential betting markets, which react more quickly than polling organizations or forecasts derived from them, offer key insight into the day-to-day movement of the race. PredictWise aggregates various betting markets into a summary of the betting action, which at this point is highly favorable to Trump, with Rubio competitive:

The Rest of the Country: Trump Leads, but Rivals Closer

Pope Francis, here in Mexico, made comments Thursday taken to be a jab at Trump, with Trump responding in CNN’s town hall. (Getty)

The Polls

Recent national polls show that Trump’s national lead may not be as secure as his state leads seem, but the extent of which, and who benefits, is a heavily mixed message:

RealClearPolitics aggregated these polls into a rolling average:

The Betting Markets

The PredictWise aggregated betting market data shows a sharp rise for Trump and a sharp fall for Rubio after a big win and a disappointing finish in New Hampshire, respectively. Meanwhile, John Kasich’s odds rise sharply but remain fairly remote following his surprise finish in New Hampshire:

News of the Day

• Rubio threatened to sue the Cruz campaign over a campaign flyer with a doctored photo purportedly showing a handshake between Rubio and President Obama.
• Donald Trump stated that Pope Francis, who recently made statements vaguely critical of Trump, has “a very big wall” of his own at the Vatican, but claimed to respect the office and Francis specifically.

GOP Primary & Debate Schedule

Debate Schedule

Texas: February 26, CNN

Location TBD: March 2016, Fox News

Florida: Date TBD, CNN/Salem Radio

Primary Schedule

South Carolina: February 20

Nevada: February 23

Super Tuesday (Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Dakota, Oklahoma,
Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, Wyoming): March 1

Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine: March 5

Puerto Rico: March 6

Hawaii, Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi: March 8

Guam, Washington, D.C.: March 12

Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, Northern Mariana Islands, Ohio: March 15

Virgin Islands: March 19

American Samoa, Arizona, Utah: March 22

Wisconsin: April 5

Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island: April 26

Indiana: May 3

Nebraska, West Virginia: May 10

Oregon: May 17

Washington: May 24

California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, South Dakota: June 7

Read More From Heavy

Democratic Polls for Feb. 18: State of the Race in Nevada & South Carolina