Marco Rubio at CNN’s town hall Wednesday night. (Getty)
After impassioned town hall performances in South Carolina Wednesday and Thursday, the focus turns to the state’s “First in the South” primary February 20. Donald Trump leads the state’s poll’s, according to RealClearPolitics, as well as those in the next state, Nevada. The FiveThirtyEight forecasts and PredictWise prediction markets also come down in Trump’s favor.
Delegate Count
| Donald Trump | 17 |
| Ted Cruz | 11 |
| Marco Rubio | 10 |
| John Kasich | 5 |
| Jeb Bush | 4 |
| Ben Carson | 3 |
Here’s a look at the state of the race:
South Carolina: Trump Well Ahead
John Kasich, here at a campaign event, had been building momentum in South Carolina but has inconsistent results in the latest polls. (Getty)
The Polls
A deluge of new polls from South Carolina hit late Thursday and Friday, all showing Trump leads (and most by double digits), with Cruz, Rubio and Bush consistently pulling double digits behind him and Kasich showing strong in some polls.
| American Research Group | Released February 19 |
| Donald Trump | 34% |
| Marco Rubio | 22% |
| John Kasich | 14% |
| Ted Cruz | 13% |
| Emerson | Released February 19 |
| Donald Trump | 36% |
| Marco Rubio | 19% |
| Ted Cruz | 18% |
| John Kasich | 10% |
| Jeb Bush | 10% |
| South Carolina House Republican Committee | Released February 18 |
| Donald Trump | 38% |
| Ted Cruz | 18% |
| Marco Rubio | 16% |
| Jeb Bush | 14% |
| Harper | Released February 18 |
| Donald Trump | 29% |
| Ted Cruz | 18% |
| Marco Rubio | 16% |
| Jeb Bush | 14% |
| NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist | Released February 18 |
| Donald Trump | 28% |
| Ted Cruz | 23% |
| Marco Rubio | 15% |
| Jeb Bush | 13% |
| Fox News | Released February 18 |
| Donald Trump | 32% |
| Ted Cruz | 19% |
| Marco Rubio | 15% |
These are consistent with polls from earlier in the week:
| Monmouth | Released February 17 |
| Donald Trump | 35% |
| Ted Cruz | 19% |
| Marco Rubio | 17% |
| Bloomberg | Released February 17 |
| Donald Trump | 36% |
| Ted Cruz | 17% |
| Marco Rubio | 15% |
| Jeb Bush | 13% |
| Public Policy Polling | Released February 16 |
| Donald Trump | 35% |
| Ted Cruz | 18% |
| Marco Rubio | 18% |
| John Kasich | 10% |
RealClearPolitics consolidated these polls into an average for all candidates:
John Kasich10%
| RealClearPolitics Averages | |
| Donald Trump | 32.9% |
| Ted Cruz | 18.1% |
| Marco Rubio | 17.1% |
| Jeb Bush | 10.5% |
With South Carolina voting Saturday, Trump’s slightly slowed momentum looks like it will have enough steam to get a big win in the Palmetto State.
The Forecasts
FiveThirtyEight’s polls-plus projections uses external factors like endorsements, the impact of previous state primaries, and national polling trends to give context to state polling numbers. Their forecast for South Carolina significantly favors Trump:
| Donald Trump | 73% |
| Marco Rubio | 17% |
Their polls-only forecast, which weights polls according to methodological rigor and past accuracy, is even friendlier to Trump:
| Donald Trump | 85% |
| Ted Cruz | 8% |
The Betting Markets
Presidential betting markets, which react more quickly than polling organizations or forecasts derived from them, offer key insight into the day-to-day movement of the race. PredictWise aggregates various betting markets into a summary of the betting action, which at this point is highly favorable to Trump, with only Cruz competitive otherwise:
| Donald Trump | 89% |
| Ted Cruz | 6% |
Click the “next page” button below for Nevada and national polling roundup, as well as a discussion of today’s news.