The most recent polls for South Carolina, from CBS News/YouGov and NBC News/Marist/Wall Street Journal show a Trump advantage of 19 and 16 points, respectively. CBS News/YouGov shows Trump taking 36 percent to Cruz’s 20 percent, with Rubio at 14; NBC News/Marist/Wall Street Journal gives Trump a full 40 percent, with Cruz at 21 and Rubio 13. Neither of these, though, were taken after the Iowa caucus, so there’s crucial context missing from these numbers.
The RealClearPolitics averages for South Carolina show a 16.3-point lead for Trump at 36, with 19.7 for Cruz, 12.7 for Rubio, and 10 for Jeb Bush.
South Carolina Polling Averages (by RealClearPolitics)
FiveThirtyEight’s polls-plus projection for South Carolina puts Trump at a 57 percent favorite to win the nomination, with Cruz at 19 and Rubio at 16. Their polls-only projection puts Trump at 70 percent, with 17 for Cruz.
FiveThirtyEight Polls-Plus Forecast
The betting markets aggregated by PredictWise have reacted significantly to the caucus, with Trump falling from 70 percent last month to a still-best 42 percent, Ted Cruz rising to 32, and Marco Rubio rising to 23.
The Rest of the Country
A recent national poll from Investors Business Daily gives Trump a 10-point lead over Ted Cruz at 31-21 percent, with Rubio at 10. It’s the smallest Trump lead of any poll in the RealClearPolitics polling average, which shows Trump with a 16.2-point lead at 35.8 percent, with Cruz taking 19.6 percent and Rubio at 10.2.
National Polling Averages (According to RealClearPolitics)
The PredictWise betting aggregation have returned Marco Rubio to favorite status, rising from 33 percent to an odds-on 57 percent, with former odds-on favorite Donald Trump falling to 24 and Ted Cruz at 14.
News of the Day
GOP Primary & Debate Schedule
New Hampshire: February 6, ABC News
South Carolina: February 13, CBS
Texas: February 26, CNN
Location TBD: March 2016, Fox News
Florida: Date TBD, CNN/Salem Radio
New Hampshire: February 9
South Carolina: February 20
Nevada: February 23
Super Tuesday (Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Dakota, Oklahoma,
Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, Wyoming): March 1
Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine: March 5
Puerto Rico: March 6
Hawaii, Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi: March 8
Guam, Washington, D.C.: March 12
Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, Northern Mariana Islands, Ohio: March 15
Virgin Islands: March 19
American Samoa, Arizona, Utah: March 22
Wisconsin: April 5
Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island: April 26
Indiana: May 3
Nebraska, West Virginia: May 10
Oregon: May 17
Washington: May 24
California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, South Dakota: June 7