GOP Polls for Feb. 3: State of the Race in New Hampshire & South Carolina

South Carolina

The most recent polls for South Carolina, from CBS News/YouGov and NBC News/Marist/Wall Street Journal show a Trump advantage of 19 and 16 points, respectively. CBS News/YouGov shows Trump taking 36 percent to Cruz’s 20 percent, with Rubio at 14; NBC News/Marist/Wall Street Journal gives Trump a full 40 percent, with Cruz at 21 and Rubio 13. Neither of these, though, were taken after the Iowa caucus, so there’s crucial context missing from these numbers.

The RealClearPolitics averages for South Carolina show a 16.3-point lead for Trump at 36, with 19.7 for Cruz, 12.7 for Rubio, and 10 for Jeb Bush.

South Carolina Polling Averages (by RealClearPolitics)

  • Donald Trump: 36%
  • Ted Cruz: 19.7%
  • Marco Rubio: 12.7%
  • Jeb Bush: 10%
  • FiveThirtyEight’s polls-plus projection for South Carolina puts Trump at a 57 percent favorite to win the nomination, with Cruz at 19 and Rubio at 16. Their polls-only projection puts Trump at 70 percent, with 17 for Cruz.

    FiveThirtyEight Polls-Plus Forecast

  • Donald Trump: 57%
  • Marco Rubio: 19%
  • Ted Cruz: 16%
  • The betting markets aggregated by PredictWise have reacted significantly to the caucus, with Trump falling from 70 percent last month to a still-best 42 percent, Ted Cruz rising to 32, and Marco Rubio rising to 23.


    The Rest of the Country

    GOP polls, Tim Scott endorsement, Marco Rubio endorsement

    South Carolina Senator Tim Scott endorsed Marco Rubio Monday. (Getty)

    A recent national poll from Investors Business Daily gives Trump a 10-point lead over Ted Cruz at 31-21 percent, with Rubio at 10. It’s the smallest Trump lead of any poll in the RealClearPolitics polling average, which shows Trump with a 16.2-point lead at 35.8 percent, with Cruz taking 19.6 percent and Rubio at 10.2.

    National Polling Averages (According to RealClearPolitics)

  • Donald Trump: 35.8%
  • Ted Cruz: 19.6%
  • Marco Rubio: 10.2%
  • The PredictWise betting aggregation have returned Marco Rubio to favorite status, rising from 33 percent to an odds-on 57 percent, with former odds-on favorite Donald Trump falling to 24 and Ted Cruz at 14.

    News of the Day

  • South Carolina Senator Tim Scott endorsed Marco Rubio on Tuesday.
  • Donald Trump demanded a new Iowa caucus on Twitter, alleging unethical and illegal conduct by Cruz, though he didn’t specify what laws were broken.

  • GOP Primary & Debate Schedule

    Debate Schedule

    New Hampshire: February 6, ABC News

    South Carolina: February 13, CBS

    Texas: February 26, CNN

    Location TBD: March 2016, Fox News

    Florida: Date TBD, CNN/Salem Radio

    Primary Schedule
    New Hampshire: February 9

    South Carolina: February 20

    Nevada: February 23

    Super Tuesday (Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Dakota, Oklahoma,
    Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, Wyoming): March 1

    Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine: March 5

    Puerto Rico: March 6

    Hawaii, Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi: March 8

    Guam, Washington, D.C.: March 12

    Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, Northern Mariana Islands, Ohio: March 15

    Virgin Islands: March 19

    American Samoa, Arizona, Utah: March 22

    Wisconsin: April 5

    Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island: April 26

    Indiana: May 3

    Nebraska, West Virginia: May 10

    Oregon: May 17

    Washington: May 24

    California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, South Dakota: June 7

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