South Carolina
Ted Cruz, here campaigning in New Hampshire, is the runner-up in the most recent South Carolina polls. (Getty)
The most recent polls for South Carolina, from CBS News/YouGov and NBC News/Marist/Wall Street Journal show a Trump advantage of 19 and 16 points, respectively. CBS News/YouGov shows Trump taking 36 percent to Cruz’s 20 percent, with Rubio at 14; NBC News/Marist/Wall Street Journal gives Trump a full 40 percent, with Cruz at 21 and Rubio 13. Neither of these, though, were taken after the Iowa caucus, so there’s crucial context missing from these numbers.
The RealClearPolitics averages for South Carolina show a 16.3-point lead for Trump at 36, with 19.7 for Cruz, 12.7 for Rubio, and 10 for Jeb Bush.
South Carolina Polling Averages (by RealClearPolitics)
FiveThirtyEight’s polls-plus projection for South Carolina puts Trump at a 56 percent favorite to win the nomination, with Rubio at 18 and Cruz at 15. Their polls-only projection puts Trump at 69 percent, with 18 for Cruz.
FiveThirtyEight Polls-Plus Forecast
In the betting markets aggregated by PredictWise, Trump rises to 52 percent, with Cruz at 22 and Rubio falling to 10.
The Rest of the Country
Chris Christie said Monday that the “whole race changed” following a well-received attack on Marco Rubio during Saturday’s debate. (Getty)
A recent national poll from Quinnipiac shows Trump leading Cruz 31 percent to 22 percent, with Rubio at 19. It’s the second straight poll to show a single-digit national lead for Trump after almost two months of 13-point or larger leads; keep in mind, though, that national polls are more reliable indicators of where state polls might move than how the primary election will play out. The RealClearPolitics polling average, narrows the Trump lead to 12.5 with this new poll, at 29.5 percent to 21 for Cruz, with Rubio taking 17.8.
National Polling Averages (According to RealClearPolitics)
Rubio’s meteoric rise in the post-Iowa PredictWise betting aggregation has slowed but not stopped, as he gains 2 points today to move to 62 percent, with former odds-on favorite Donald Trump holding steady at 22 and Ted Cruz at 12.
News of the Day
GOP Primary & Debate Schedule
Debate Schedule
New Hampshire: February 6, ABC News
South Carolina: February 13, CBS
Texas: February 26, CNN
Location TBD: March 2016, Fox News
Florida: Date TBD, CNN/Salem Radio
Primary Schedule
New Hampshire: February 9
South Carolina: February 20
Nevada: February 23
Super Tuesday (Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Dakota, Oklahoma,
Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, Wyoming): March 1
Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine: March 5
Puerto Rico: March 6
Hawaii, Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi: March 8
Guam, Washington, D.C.: March 12
Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, Northern Mariana Islands, Ohio: March 15
Virgin Islands: March 19
American Samoa, Arizona, Utah: March 22
Wisconsin: April 5
Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island: April 26
Indiana: May 3
Nebraska, West Virginia: May 10
Oregon: May 17
Washington: May 24
California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, South Dakota: June 7
