GOP Polls for Feb. 9: State of the Race in New Hampshire & South Carolina

Donald Trump campaigns in New Hampshire, where polls show him with a commanding lead. (Getty)

With Tuesday’s New Hampshire primary a big win for Donald Trump, the next stop of the race to the Republican nomination is in South Carolina. Trump holds a major polling advantage in South Carolina, though the polling is slightly out of date and it’s not yet clear what candidates will be left standing after New Hampshire.

Delegate Count (1,237 Needed)

Note: this count is not yet updated for New Hampshire delegates.

Here’s a look at the state of the race:

New Hampshire

Marco Rubio, here campaigning in New Hampshire, has seen a post-Iowa surge stall in the latest polls. (Getty)

While Donald Trump leads all recent polls by double digits, the polling case for Rubio as runner-up is substantially less clear. Gravis shows him slipping to third place, with Trump holding an 11-point, 28-17 lead over John Kasich. Rubio takes 15 percent in the poll, with Jeb Bush at 14 and Cruz at 10. CNN/WMUR puts him second by 14 points, 31-17, with Cruz at 14 and Kasich at 10. CNN/WMUR again has him as the runner-up, 17 to Trump’s 30, but Emerson College puts him as low as fifth, With 12 percent to Trump’s 31, with Bush and Kasich between them at 16 and 13, respectively, and Cruz just behind at 12. The tracking poll from UMass-Lowell/7News, shows that Rubio has slid into a tie for runner-up status with Ted Cruz, 13 apiece to Trump’s 34, with Bush and Kasich tied for fourth at 10. Perhaps some good news for Rubio: he’s not polling considerably better or worse as the polls’ periods include more days following his his poorly received debate performance, meaning that he might have escaped the gaffe with little impact.

According to RealClearPolitics polling averages, Trump has a 16.3-point lead with 30.7 percent of the vote, followed by Rubio at 14.4, Kasich at 13, Cruz at 12.4 and Bush at 11.3.

New Hampshire Polling Averages (by RealClearPolitics)

FiveThirtyEight’s polls-plus forecast, which considers multiple factors beyond the polls, gives Trump a 70 percent chance to win New Hampshire, with Rubio tied with Kasich at 10 percent and everyone else in single digits. Their polls-only forecast bumps Trump to 76 percent, with no one else taking double digits.

FiveThirtyEight Polls-Plus Forecast

In the PredictWise betting averages, Trump rises to 83 percent, making him alone in double digits.

Click the “next page” button below for New Hampshire and national polling roundup, as well as a discussion of today’s news.

South Carolina

Ted Cruz, here campaigning in New Hampshire, is the runner-up in the most recent South Carolina polls. (Getty)

The most recent polls for South Carolina, from CBS News/YouGov and NBC News/Marist/Wall Street Journal show a Trump advantage of 19 and 16 points, respectively. CBS News/YouGov shows Trump taking 36 percent to Cruz’s 20 percent, with Rubio at 14; NBC News/Marist/Wall Street Journal gives Trump a full 40 percent, with Cruz at 21 and Rubio 13. Neither of these, though, were taken after the Iowa caucus, so there’s crucial context missing from these numbers.

The RealClearPolitics averages for South Carolina show a 16.3-point lead for Trump at 36, with 19.7 for Cruz, 12.7 for Rubio, and 10 for Jeb Bush.

South Carolina Polling Averages (by RealClearPolitics)

FiveThirtyEight’s polls-plus projection for South Carolina puts Trump at a 56 percent favorite to win the nomination, with Rubio at 18 and Cruz at 15. Their polls-only projection puts Trump at 69 percent, with 18 for Cruz.

FiveThirtyEight Polls-Plus Forecast

In the betting markets aggregated by PredictWise, Trump rises to 52 percent, with Cruz at 22 and Rubio falling to 10.

The Rest of the Country

Chris Christie said Monday that the “whole race changed” following a well-received attack on Marco Rubio during Saturday’s debate. (Getty)

A recent national poll from Quinnipiac shows Trump leading Cruz 31 percent to 22 percent, with Rubio at 19. It’s the second straight poll to show a single-digit national lead for Trump after almost two months of 13-point or larger leads; keep in mind, though, that national polls are more reliable indicators of where state polls might move than how the primary election will play out. The RealClearPolitics polling average, narrows the Trump lead to 12.5 with this new poll, at 29.5 percent to 21 for Cruz, with Rubio taking 17.8.

National Polling Averages (According to RealClearPolitics)

Rubio’s meteoric rise in the post-Iowa PredictWise betting aggregation has slowed but not stopped, as he gains 2 points today to move to 62 percent, with former odds-on favorite Donald Trump holding steady at 22 and Ted Cruz at 12.

News of the Day

GOP Primary & Debate Schedule

Debate Schedule

New Hampshire: February 6, ABC News

South Carolina: February 13, CBS

Texas: February 26, CNN

Location TBD: March 2016, Fox News

Florida: Date TBD, CNN/Salem Radio

Primary Schedule
New Hampshire: February 9

South Carolina: February 20

Nevada: February 23

Super Tuesday (Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Dakota, Oklahoma,
Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, Wyoming): March 1

Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine: March 5

Puerto Rico: March 6

Hawaii, Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi: March 8

Guam, Washington, D.C.: March 12

Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, Northern Mariana Islands, Ohio: March 15

Virgin Islands: March 19

American Samoa, Arizona, Utah: March 22

Wisconsin: April 5

Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island: April 26

Indiana: May 3

Nebraska, West Virginia: May 10

Oregon: May 17

Washington: May 24

California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, South Dakota: June 7

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