Where Iowa is seeing the margins start to thin for Donald Trump, his New Hampshire leads are only getting larger. A new poll from UMass-Lowell/7News shows a whopping 26-point lead over Cruz, 38 to 12 percent, with no one else above 9. CNN/WMUR is not much friendlier to the field, showing an 18-point Trump lead at 30 percent, with Cruz taking 12 and Rubio 11. Rubio, fifth in the UMass-Lowell/7News poll, also only has 43 percent of his voters completely convinced, compared to 72 for Trump, 65 for Cruz, and 65 for John Kasich. Given that FiveThirtyEight puts up to 20 percent weight on previous state’s primary results, whether the polling surge for Rubio in Iowa comes through at the caucus may make or break his candidacy.
According to RealClearPolitics polling averages, Trump has an 21.7-point lead with 33.2 percent of the vote, followed by Cruz and Kasich tied at 11.5, Jeb Bush at 10.3 and Rubio at 9.5.
New Hampshire Polling Averages (by RealClearPolitics)
FiveThirtyEight’s polls-plus forecast gives Trump a 61 percent chance to win New Hampshire, with Cruz at 14 percent and Rubio at 10. Their polls-only forecast bumps Trump to 73 percent, with no one else in double digits.
FiveThirtyEight Polls-Plus Forecast
In the PredictWise betting averages, Trump holds fairly steady at 67 percent, with Marco Rubio at 11.
The Rest of the Country
A recent national poll from Investors Business Daily gives Trump a 10-point lead over Ted Cruz at 31-21 percent, with Rubio at 10. It’s the smallest Trump lead of any poll in the RealClearPolitics polling average, which shows Trump with a 16.2-point lead at 35.8 percent, with Cruz taking 19.6 percent and Rubio at 10.2.
National Polling Averages (According to RealClearPolitics)
The PredictWise betting aggregation shows Trump holding fairly steady at 51 percent, with former frontrunner Rubio at 33 percent.
News of the Day
GOP Primary & Debate Schedule
New Hampshire: February 6, ABC News
South Carolina: February 13, CBS
Texas: February 26, CNN
Location TBD: March 2016, Fox News
Florida: Date TBD, CNN/Salem Radio
Iowa: February 1
New Hampshire: February 9
South Carolina: February 20
Nevada: February 23
Super Tuesday (Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Dakota, Oklahoma,
Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, Wyoming): March 1
Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine: March 5
Puerto Rico: March 6
Hawaii, Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi: March 8
Guam, Washington, D.C.: March 12
Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, Northern Mariana Islands, Ohio: March 15
Virgin Islands: March 19
American Samoa, Arizona, Utah: March 22
Wisconsin: April 5
Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island: April 26
Indiana: May 3
Nebraska, West Virginia: May 10
Oregon: May 17
Washington: May 24
California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, South Dakota: June 7