HIllary Clinton, here at a victory speech in Nevada, is well ahead in South Carolina polls. (Getty)
After a tight finish in Iowa and a big win for Bernie Sanders, the Nevada caucus proved to be a decisive victory for Hillary Clinton. There’s little time for the Clinton camp to celebrate, however, as the campaign moves on to the South Carolina primary February 27.
According to the polls, Hillary Clinton is expected to score her largest victory of the race, a sentiment echoed by the forecasts and the betting markets. Here’s a look at the state of the race:
The Polls
Polls for South Carolina showed Hillary well in the lead even after disappointing results in the first two states. As the race in Nevada shook out, her polling picture got even better:
| NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist | Released February 20 |
| Hillary Clinton | 60% |
| Bernie Sanders | 32% |
| Fox News | Released February 20 |
| Hillary Clinton | 56% |
| Bernie Sanders | 28% |
| Bloomberg | Released February 19 |
| Hillary Clinton | 53% |
| Bernie Sanders | 31% |
| American Research Group | Released February 19 |
| Hillary Clinton | 61% |
| Bernie Sanders | 32% |
| Monmouth | Released February 18 |
| Hillary Clinton | 59% |
| Bernie Sanders | 30% |
| Public Policy Polling | Released February 16 |
| Hillary Clinton | 55% |
| Bernie Sanders | 34% |
| CBS News/YouGov | Released February 14 |
| Hillary Clinton | 59% |
| Bernie Sanders | 40% |
| American Research Group | Released February 14 |
| Hillary Clinton | 65% |
| Bernie Sanders | 27% |
RealClearPolitics updated its averages with these new polls, eliminating the out-of-date 2015 surveys:
| RealClearPolitics Averages | |
| Hillary Clinton | 57.4% |
| Bernie Sanders | 33.3% |
While these averages aren’t far from the results before other states voted (Sanders actually gains somewhat on the average), that’s not great news for a candidate who has a lot of ground to make up and has likely already seen his biggest bump from two very favorable states
The Forecasts
FiveThirtyEight’s polls-plus forecast factors in elements like previous primary results, endorsements, and national polling trends to add context to the polling numbers. Their polls-plus forecast for South Carolina is extremely favorable to Clinton:
| FiveThirtyEight Polls-Plus Forecast | |
| Hillary Clinton | >99% |
| Bernie Sanders | <1% |
Their polls-only forecast weighs recent polls according to methodological rigor and past accuracy, shows similarly dim hopes for Sanders:
| FiveThirtyEight Polls-Only Forecast | |
| Hillary Clinton | >99% |
| Bernie Sanders | <1% |
The Betting Markets
The betting markets for South Carolina, based on day-to-day reactions, come down heavily in favor of Clinton after the new polls:
| PredictWise South Carolina Betting Markets | |
| Hillary Clinton | 99% |
| Bernie Sanders | 1% |
