Arizona General Election Polls: Hillary Clinton Leads Donald Trump in Red State

Donald Trump greets supporters in Phoenix, Arizona. (Getty)

Donald Trump could lose to Hillary Clinton in Arizona, a state that in prior years has been a lock for Republicans.

So far, four major Arizona polls have been released, only one of which shows Trump with a lead over Clinton. In the others, the Democratic candidate either ties Trump or defeats him by several points, which is making many in the Republican party quite nervous that traditionally-red states like these could turn blue in November.

Republicans have carried Arizona during every general election in the past 64 years, with the only exception being 1996, when Bill Clinton defeated Bob Dole. Even this was an extremely narrow victory, though, with Clinton beating Dole by two percentage points.

This is not the only red state where Trump’s numbers are looking quite dire. A recent poll showed that Hillary Clinton is within seven points of Donald Trump in Texas.

Here are all the Arizona general election polls you need to see.

OH Predictive Insights

A brand new poll from OH Predictive Insights was conducted on June 20 by speaking to 1,060 voters.

Six percent of those polled said they planned to vote for a third party candidate, while 5.6 percent were undecided. The poll also found that Clinton had a 12-point lead over Trump among female voters.

OH Predictive Insight partner Wes Gullett told the Phoenix Business Journal that the results of this poll were quite surprising.

“It’s shocking to think that a Democratic presidential candidate would carry Arizona if the election were held today, considering that every statewide office in Arizona is held by a Republican as well as significant majorities in the Arizona House and Senate,” he said.

Public Policy Polling

A May poll from Public Policy Polling was more favorable to Trump, although his lead still was not as decisive as many on the right would hope. The poll was conducted from May 13th to May 15th by speaking to 896 registered voters. The margin of error is 3.3 percent.

14 percent of those polled said they were not sure for whom they would vote. 60 percent of voters said they had an unfavorable opinion of Hillary Clinton compared to 56 percent for Donald Trump. And in a hypothetical matchup of Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump, Sanders maintained a slight lead, defeating Trump 45 percent to 44 percent.

Behavior Research Center

Behavior Research Center‘s poll was conducted from April 4th to April 11th by speaking to 564 registered voters. The margin of error is 4.2 percent. In this one, Clinton has the largest lead over Trump of any of these polls, including the most recent one from OH Predictive Insights.

Though Clinton easily beat Trump, she was handily defeated in a matchup with Trump’s Republican rivals. She lost to Ted Cruz 43% to 38%, and she also lost to Josh Kasich 44% to 32%. Bernie Sanders beat Trump by a shocking 21 posts, 54% to 33%.

Merrill Poll

Merrill Poll spoke to 701 likely voters from March 7th to March 11th. The margin of error was 3.7 percent.

As this poll was conducted while the primary season was still underway, a large chunk of voters could not decide between Trump and Clinton; 15% were undecided, while 9% said they would vote for neither candidate. Although the poll showed a tie between Clinton and Trump, Ted Cruz was able to defeat the Democratic candidate 41% to 35%, while Bernie Sanders beat Donald Trump 39% to 36%.