North Carolina General Election Polls: Tight One Between Donald Trump & Hillary Clinton

Donald Trump and Chris Christie in Hickory, North Carolina on March 14. (Getty)

North Carolina is among the states that could go either way in a November election between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. The Tar Heel state has been historically red during presidential elections. That appeared to change in 2008, when the state barely went to Barack Obama. It was the first time a Democrat won North Carolina’s electoral votes since Jimmy Carter in 1976. But the state swung back to the Republicans in 2012, with Mitt Romney beating Obama.

Early polls from North Carolina reflect the state’s swing status. Data on RealClear Politics show only one poll that gives a double-digit lead to either candidate, and that was an Elon University poll back in October that gave Clinton a 10-point lead.

Clearly, both candidates are going to need to spend time campaigning in North Carolina to win the state’s 15 electoral votes. Trump visited Greensboro earlier this week and Clinton has a trip planned on June 22.

Here’s a look at some early polls, via RealClear Politics.

Public Police Polling – January

A PPP poll released on January 20 showed Trump with just a two-point lead, within the 3.2 percent margin of error. The poll was of 948 registered voters and also showed that Trump would beat Bernie Sanders, albeit by just one point.

Public Policy Polling & Survey USA – February

A month later, another PPP poll found that Trump still came in on top, but only by one point this time. This poll had a much larger pool of respondents, with 1,291 registered voters.

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SurveyUSA – February

A SuveyUSA poll taken during the same period as the February PPP poll showed Trump with a two-point lead. This one had 1,250 respondents, all likely voters.

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Elon University – February

Hillary Clinton meeting with supporters in Raleigh in March. (Getty)

Elon University conducted a poll between February 15 and February 17 and had a large pool of respondents with 1,530 likely voters. Here, Clinton gains a six-point advantage.

Public Policy Polling – March

The March PPP poll was completed just after the North Carolina primary. Although Trump won the GOP primary, the poll showed him losing to Clinton in a match-up, but within the 3.4 percent margin of error and only among 843 registered voters.

Public Policy Polling – April

In April, PPP found a tie among 960 registered voters.

Civitas – April

The April poll from Civitas gave Clinton the largest lead over Trump in North Carolina since October. However, this poll only had 600 likely voters responding and had a 4 percent margin of error.

Public Policy Polling – May

In the first poll since Trump became the presumptive nominee, Trump took back the lead in the May PPP poll. The number of respondents for this poll were 928 and the margin of error was 3.2 percent.

Civitas – May

The results from the May Civitas poll also gave Trump a four-point lead. Once again, this poll only had 600 likely voters responding and had a 4 percent margin of error.

NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll – July

On July 15, NBC News and the Wall Street Journal released a new poll done in conjunction with Marist that showed Clinton ahead of Trump in several key swing states. That included North Carolina. There has yet to be a new poll from the state since the conventions wrapped up.