Virginia General Election Polls: Hillary Clinton Leads Donald Trump

Hillary Clinton spoke about national security at the Virginia Air and Space Center in Hampton, Virginia on June 15. (Getty)

Donald Trump will have to try to turn Virginia red again in order to win the general election in November. The commonwealth had long voted for Republicans in November, but Barack Obama turned the state blue during the past two elections. Hillary Clinton currently has thin leads over Trump. Clinton is likely to gain even more traction in Virginia after picking Senator Tim Kaine as her running mate.

Public Policy Polling just released a poll on Virginia that was conducted after the tragic shooting in Orlando, Florida that killed 49 people. Clinton retained her lead and has consistently lead Trump in polls from Virginia, long before she was the Democratic party’s presumptive nominee. A more recent poll by Hampton University in July gave Trump a lead, but it’s less than a full percentage point.

Here is a look at the polls conducted in Virginia over the past few months, via RealClear Politics.

Roanoke College – November

Some earlier polls in Virginia gave Clinton double-digit leads, like one from Roanoke College, completed between November 9 and November 13. This one gave Clinton a 14-point lead over Trump. The sample size was 555 registered voters.

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Roanoke College – January

Another poll from Roanoke College in January showed Clinton with an even bigger lead. However, this poll had an even smaller sample size, with just 524 likely voters responding.

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Christopher Newport University – March/April

Christopher Newport University conducted a poll of 1,167 registered voters after Virginia’s primary election, between March 23 and April 3. This one showed Clinton’s lead getting a bit smaller.

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Roanoke College – May

Donald Trump speaks at Liberty University in Lynchburg, Virginia on January 18.

Roanoke College polled 610 likely voters between May 9 and May 17. Trump and Clinton tied in this one, a sign that Clinton’s lead overall in the state is closing.

Gravis – May

Gravis Marketing polled 1,728 registered voters on May 24. This poll gave Clinton a lead once again with four points, just outside the 2 percent margin of error. However, the poll did show Trump’s support increasing from the previous polls.

Public Policy Polling – June

PPP polled 1,032 registered voters between June 13 and June 15, just days after the Orlando terrorist attack. The poll also included questions on gun control, and found that 88 percent support background checks on all gun purchases. Even 83 percent of the Republican voters polled support universal background checks.

Six percent of those polled showed support for Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein had 2 percent support. The margin of error on the poll was 3.1 percent.

Hampton University – July

The most recent poll of likely Virginia voters was conducted by Hampton University form July 6-10, 2016, so before the party conventions. However, the poll reveals that Clinton has a significant trust issue, with 64 percent saying that she is not trustworthy. Fifty-eight percent of those polled do not trust Trump either. The sample size was 805 registered voters.

Other polls from July gave Clinton a big advantage. A NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll gave Clinton a nine-point lead over Trump – 44 percent to 35 percent.

University of Mary Washington’s Center for Leadership and Media Studies – September

A poll by the University of Mary Washington’s Center for Leadership and Media Studies, which the Associated Press published on September 15, showed Clinton ahead of Trump. In this one, Clinton had a 5-percent lead over Trump when all registered voters were polled, but a slim three-point lead when likely voters were polled.

The sample size was 852 registered voters, with 685 of those polled likely voters. The poll was completed between September 6 and September 12, with a margin of error of 3.9 percent when all of the registered voters were polled.

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