It has been a week since Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton squared off in their first presidential debate. The majority of polls and pundits show Clinton won the debate, but the post-debate bump in polling may not be as high as Clinton supporters would like.
The FOX News poll shows Clinton with a five point lead and the PPP poll has Clinton with a four point lead. A poll conducted by The Los Angeles Times shows Trump with a five point lead. According to FiveThirtyEight, the poll includes data from both before and after the debate.
Early polling in 11 swing states showed Clinton leading in all 11 states after the debate. Her bump in the general polling numbers could be as little as 1 or 2 percentage points.
According to 270towin.com, Clinton has a projected 200-163 lead in the electoral college total. There are an additional 175 votes up for grabs in the swing states based on the latest projections. The winning candidate will need 270 votes to win.
FiveThirtyEight’s polls-plus forecast gives Clinton a 65.2 percentage point chance of winning in November. The first Vice Presidential debate takes place October 4 while the second presidential debate will be October 9.
Here’s a look at the latest post-debate polling numbers.
RealClear Politics Average: Trump vs. Clinton
RealClear Politics keeps a running average of the Trump vs. Clinton polls. The average includes data from ten polls. The LA Times/USC Tracking poll conducted September 26-October 2, the FOX News poll conducted September 27-29, the PPP poll conducted September 27-28, the Gravis poll conducted September 27, the Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted September 22-26, the Quinnipiac poll conducted September 22-25, the Bloomberg poll conducted September 21-24, the Monmouth poll conducted September 22-25, the Economist/YouGov poll conducted September 22-24 and the NBC News/SM poll conducted September 19-25.
CANDIDATE | VOTE% |
Hillary Clinton | 47.5 |
Donald Trump | 45.0 |
LA Times/USC Tracking
The LA Times/USC Tracking poll conducted September 26-October 2. It has a margin of error of 4.5 percentage points.
CANDIDATE | VOTE% |
Donald Trump | 47 |
Hillary Clinton | 42 |
FOX News
The FOX News poll was conducted September 27-29. It has a margin of error of 3.0 percentage points.
CANDIDATE | VOTE% |
Hillary Clinton | 49 |
Donald Trump | 44 |
PPP
The PPP poll was conducted September 27-28. It has a margin of error of 3.2 percentage points.
CANDIDATE | VOTE% |
Hillary Clinton | 49 |
Donald Trump | 45 |
Gravis
The Gravis poll was conducted September 27. It has a margin of error of 1.7 percentage points.
CANDIDATE | VOTE% |
Hillary Clinton | 50 |
Donald Trump | 50 |
RealClear Politics Average: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein
RealClear Politics keeps a running average of the four-way polls. The average includes data from eight polls. The Rasmussen Reports poll conducted September 28-October 2, the FOX News poll conducted September 27-29, the PPP poll conducted September 27-28, the Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted September 22-26, the Quinnipiac poll conducted September 22-25, the Bloomberg poll conducted September 21-24, the Monmouth poll conducted September 22-25 and the Economist/YouGov poll conducted September 22-24.
CANDIDATE | VOTE% |
Hillary Clinton | 43.4 |
Donald Trump | 40.9 |
Gary Johnson | 7.3 |
Jill Stein | 2.4 |
Rasmussen Reports
The Rasmussen Reports poll was conducted September 28-October 2. It has a margin of error of 2.5 percentage points.
CANDIDATE | VOTE% |
Hillary Clinton | 43 |
Donald Trump | 40 |
Gary Johnson | 8 |
Jill Stein | 2 |
FOX News
The FOX News poll was conducted September 27-29. It has a margin of error of 3.0 percentage points.
CANDIDATE | VOTE% |
Hillary Clinton | 43 |
Donald Trump | 40 |
Gary Johnson | 8 |
Jill Stein | 4 |
PPP
The PPP poll was conducted September 27-28. It has a margin of error of 3.2 percentage points.
CANDIDATE | VOTE% |
Hillary Clinton | 44 |
Donald Trump | 40 |
Gary Johnson | 6 |
Jill Stein | 1 |