Colorado is one of the critical battleground states that has been tightening fairly dramatically in recent days. The most recent presidential poll out of Colorado shows the race there is now a tie.
The poll was released November 2. Conducted by The University of Denver from October 29-31, the poll found the following:
University of Denver Poll
Eight percent remained undecided.
More Donald Trump voters told the pollsters that they had not yet voted than did Hillary Clinton voters, who made up a larger proportion of early voters. If Trump can get those people to the polls, it could help him secure the state.
Colorado had long been marked as a likely Hillary Clinton state by many experts, as she led in polling there by 8 points on October 16, according to RealClearPolitics polling averages. That was the height of the Billy Bush and sexual misconduct allegation controversies against Trump; the race was also virtually tied on October 2. Thus, the new poll shows Trump has erased the deficit he encountered after those allegations, at least in Colorado. Clinton led Colorado by more all summer; she was up 11.3% at one point in August.
President Obama won Colorado twice, but, before that, the state was more competitive for Republicans. In 2012, Obama carried the state 51.5% to 46.1%.
The time frame of the new poll encompasses the days right after FBI Director James Comey sent his controversial letter to Congress revealing the agency wanted to review a cache of newly discovered emails to see if they were significant to the Bureau’s past investigation into Clinton’s private server.
Two other polls conducted in Colorado after the Comey letter also show a tight race. Clinton leads by 3 and 1 in those polls. A poll that also encompassed part of that post-Comey time frame had her leading by 3. The race started to tighten in the polls right before the letter came out, though.
According to The Denver Post, Clinton leads among early voters, but Trump leads among those who have not yet voted, in the latest poll. Thirty-seven percent of the people who chose Trump had early voted compared to 44% of the people who chose Clinton, the Post said. The largest category in the poll for political affiliation was independent. The independent streak evident among Colorado voters is helping Trump, as are the state’s demographics. The state is more than 87% white, a growing percentage, and Clinton has a lead among non-white voters.
The state had appeared to be a lock for Hillary Clinton. That is, until FBI Director Comey sent his controversial letter to Congress on October 28. By November 2, Trump was in striking distance in Colorado.
If he could upset Clinton there and take the state’s electoral votes, it would go a long way toward helping Trump find a pathway to an electoral college victory. Trump’s pathway remains difficult, despite a tightening of the polls both nationally and in a series of battleground states. That’s because, to get the right math, Trump would have to run the table and win a slew of states where polling is currently tied or almost tied (like North Carolina and Nevada). He would also have to flip a state that had, until recently, seemed likely to go blue – among the possibilities, Virginia, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, or Colorado.
A new poll in Wisconsin showed Clinton with a 6-point lead on November 2.
The RealClearPolitics national polling average finds Clinton with a 1.9% lead from October 22-November 1. However, that lead has been shrinking daily of late.
See some of the pathways to victory for Clinton and Trump in the electoral college here: