Before looking at some maps that show a Trump pathway to surprise upset victory, let's consider the most likely scenario based on current polling as of November 3 Clinton wins the electoral college. National and battleground state polling has been tightening
. An ABC/Washington Post poll found that Donald Trump was leading
Hillary Clinton by 1 percent. The next day she was leading also in the margin of error. Some have questioned that poll's credibility because it shows a huge swing for Trump in the past week. However, it's the electoral college math that really matters. And that math, based on recent polling in battleground states as of October 31, and captured in
this 270toWin map, shows Trump has a very tough pathway toward victory. Of course, that could change if the polls tighten further, and they did, and some battleground states do not have recent polling that captures the aftermath of the FBI director's letter to Congress saying that the FBI wanted to review a cache of new emails to see if they were significant to the agency's earlier investigation into Hillary Clinton's private email server. That's true of Iowa, for example. This electoral college map from 270toWin shows that Trump would need almost every single undecided state to prevail. Based on current polling as of November 1, that would be a tough row to hoe because Trump still trails in multiple of those states, and others are virtually tied. He'd need to pull off magic in a slew of undecided states or the polls would need to tighten more in the next few days (and pick up more evidence of post-Comey fallout). Turnout could make a difference, but millions of Americans have already cast their ballots early. It's always possible there will be some shift the polls are not detecting, but that would be very surprising. However, since this map, the polls have continued to tighten in Trump's favor in most battleground states. The question is whether it will be enough. This map has Clinton at 258 and Trump at 157. The candidates need 270 electoral votes to win. You can customize your own electoral college maps at 270towin.